Dynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China

Pork makes up the highest proportion of household expenditure on meat in China and supply and demand have been basically stable in the past decade. However, the catastrophic outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in August 2018 disrupted the balance and reduced the national herd by half within six mo...

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Autores principales:	Yihao Huang, Jing Li, Juan Zhang, Zhen Jin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	AIMS Press 2021
Materias:	african swine fever price function the basic reproductive number hopf bifurcation sensitivity analysis Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0f8d95c9ed4344318c5451ef46758ae3
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:0f8d95c9ed4344318c5451ef46758ae3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0f8d95c9ed4344318c5451ef46758ae32021-11-24T00:55:52ZDynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China10.3934/mbe.20214031551-0018https://doaj.org/article/0f8d95c9ed4344318c5451ef46758ae32021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2021403?viewType=HTMLhttps://doaj.org/toc/1551-0018Pork makes up the highest proportion of household expenditure on meat in China and supply and demand have been basically stable in the past decade. However, the catastrophic outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in August 2018 disrupted the balance and reduced the national herd by half within six months. The consequence was a gross lack of supply to the market and consumer demand was unable to be met. Accordingly, live pig prices rose sharply from 2019. In order to assess the influence of ASF on the price of the live pigs, we use a price function to characterize the relationship between price of the live pigs and the nation's pig stock, and then establish a time delay ASF epidemic dynamical model with the price function. By analyzing the dynamical behaviors of the model, we calculate the basic reproductive number, discuss the stability of equilibrium, and obtain the critical conditions for Hopf bifurcation. The model reasonableness is confirmed by carrying out data fitting and parameter estimation based on price data of the live pigs, the pig stock data and the outbreak data of ASF. By performing sensitivity analysis, we intuitively show the impact of ASF on the price of live pigs and the pig stocks, and assess the key factors affecting the outbreak of ASF. The conclusion is drawn that, with the control measures adopted by related government department in China, the basic reproductive number ($ R_0 = 0.6005 $) means that the ASF epidemic has been controlled. Moreover, the price of the live pig increases linearly with $ R_0 $, while the effect of the number of infected pigs on the subsequent price is non-linear related. Our findings suggest that society and the government should pay more attention to the prevention of animal disease epidemics.Yihao HuangJing Li Juan ZhangZhen JinAIMS Pressarticleafrican swine feverprice functionthe basic reproductive numberhopf bifurcationsensitivity analysisBiotechnologyTP248.13-248.65MathematicsQA1-939ENMathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Vol 18, Iss 6, Pp 8123-8148 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	african swine fever price function the basic reproductive number hopf bifurcation sensitivity analysis Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	african swine fever price function the basic reproductive number hopf bifurcation sensitivity analysis Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Mathematics QA1-939 Yihao Huang Jing Li Juan Zhang Zhen Jin Dynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China
description	Pork makes up the highest proportion of household expenditure on meat in China and supply and demand have been basically stable in the past decade. However, the catastrophic outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in August 2018 disrupted the balance and reduced the national herd by half within six months. The consequence was a gross lack of supply to the market and consumer demand was unable to be met. Accordingly, live pig prices rose sharply from 2019. In order to assess the influence of ASF on the price of the live pigs, we use a price function to characterize the relationship between price of the live pigs and the nation's pig stock, and then establish a time delay ASF epidemic dynamical model with the price function. By analyzing the dynamical behaviors of the model, we calculate the basic reproductive number, discuss the stability of equilibrium, and obtain the critical conditions for Hopf bifurcation. The model reasonableness is confirmed by carrying out data fitting and parameter estimation based on price data of the live pigs, the pig stock data and the outbreak data of ASF. By performing sensitivity analysis, we intuitively show the impact of ASF on the price of live pigs and the pig stocks, and assess the key factors affecting the outbreak of ASF. The conclusion is drawn that, with the control measures adopted by related government department in China, the basic reproductive number ($ R_0 = 0.6005 $) means that the ASF epidemic has been controlled. Moreover, the price of the live pig increases linearly with $ R_0 $, while the effect of the number of infected pigs on the subsequent price is non-linear related. Our findings suggest that society and the government should pay more attention to the prevention of animal disease epidemics.
format	article
author	Yihao Huang Jing Li Juan Zhang Zhen Jin
author_facet	Yihao Huang Jing Li Juan Zhang Zhen Jin
author_sort	Yihao Huang
title	Dynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China
title_short	Dynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China
title_full	Dynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China
title_fullStr	Dynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China
title_full_unstemmed	Dynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China
title_sort	dynamical analysis of the spread of african swine fever with the live pig price in china
publisher	AIMS Press
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0f8d95c9ed4344318c5451ef46758ae3
work_keys_str_mv	AT yihaohuang dynamicalanalysisofthespreadofafricanswinefeverwiththelivepigpriceinchina AT jingli dynamicalanalysisofthespreadofafricanswinefeverwiththelivepigpriceinchina AT juanzhang dynamicalanalysisofthespreadofafricanswinefeverwiththelivepigpriceinchina AT zhenjin dynamicalanalysisofthespreadofafricanswinefeverwiththelivepigpriceinchina
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Dynamical analysis of the spread of African swine fever with the live pig price in China

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