Evaluation of a continuous indicator for syndromic surveillance through simulation. application to vector borne disease emergence detection in cattle using milk yield.

Two vector borne diseases, caused by the Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses respectively, have emerged in the European ruminant populations since 2006. Several diseases are transmitted by the same vectors and could emerge in the future. Syndromic surveillance, which consists in the routine monitor...

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Autores principales:	Aurélien Madouasse, Alexis Marceau, Anne Lehébel, Henriëtte Brouwer-Middelesch, Gerdien van Schaik, Yves Van der Stede, Christine Fourichon
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0f92779b355d45179fdcf420ca83adfb
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0f92779b355d45179fdcf420ca83adfb2021-11-18T08:55:33ZEvaluation of a continuous indicator for syndromic surveillance through simulation. application to vector borne disease emergence detection in cattle using milk yield.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0073726https://doaj.org/article/0f92779b355d45179fdcf420ca83adfb2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24069227/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Two vector borne diseases, caused by the Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses respectively, have emerged in the European ruminant populations since 2006. Several diseases are transmitted by the same vectors and could emerge in the future. Syndromic surveillance, which consists in the routine monitoring of indicators for the detection of adverse health events, may allow an early detection. Milk yield is routinely measured in a large proportion of dairy herds and could be incorporated as an indicator in a surveillance system. However, few studies have evaluated continuous indicators for syndromic surveillance. The aim of this study was to develop a framework for the quantification of both disease characteristics and model predictive abilities that are important for a continuous indicator to be sensitive, timely and specific for the detection of a vector-borne disease emergence. Emergences with a range of spread characteristics and effects on milk production were simulated. Milk yields collected monthly in 48 713 French dairy herds were used to simulate 576 disease emergence scenarios. First, the effect of disease characteristics on the sensitivity and timeliness of detection were assessed: Spatio-temporal clusters of low milk production were detected with a scan statistic using the difference between observed and simulated milk yields as input. In a second step, the system specificity was evaluated by running the scan statistic on the difference between observed and predicted milk yields, in the absence of simulated emergence. The timeliness of detection depended mostly on how easily the disease spread between and within herds. The time and location of the emergence or adding random noise to the simulated effects had a limited impact on the timeliness of detection. The main limitation of the system was the low specificity i.e. the high number of clusters detected from the difference between observed and predicted productions, in the absence of disease.Aurélien MadouasseAlexis MarceauAnne LehébelHenriëtte Brouwer-MiddeleschGerdien van SchaikYves Van der StedeChristine FourichonPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 9, p e73726 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Aurélien Madouasse Alexis Marceau Anne Lehébel Henriëtte Brouwer-Middelesch Gerdien van Schaik Yves Van der Stede Christine Fourichon Evaluation of a continuous indicator for syndromic surveillance through simulation. application to vector borne disease emergence detection in cattle using milk yield.
description	Two vector borne diseases, caused by the Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses respectively, have emerged in the European ruminant populations since 2006. Several diseases are transmitted by the same vectors and could emerge in the future. Syndromic surveillance, which consists in the routine monitoring of indicators for the detection of adverse health events, may allow an early detection. Milk yield is routinely measured in a large proportion of dairy herds and could be incorporated as an indicator in a surveillance system. However, few studies have evaluated continuous indicators for syndromic surveillance. The aim of this study was to develop a framework for the quantification of both disease characteristics and model predictive abilities that are important for a continuous indicator to be sensitive, timely and specific for the detection of a vector-borne disease emergence. Emergences with a range of spread characteristics and effects on milk production were simulated. Milk yields collected monthly in 48 713 French dairy herds were used to simulate 576 disease emergence scenarios. First, the effect of disease characteristics on the sensitivity and timeliness of detection were assessed: Spatio-temporal clusters of low milk production were detected with a scan statistic using the difference between observed and simulated milk yields as input. In a second step, the system specificity was evaluated by running the scan statistic on the difference between observed and predicted milk yields, in the absence of simulated emergence. The timeliness of detection depended mostly on how easily the disease spread between and within herds. The time and location of the emergence or adding random noise to the simulated effects had a limited impact on the timeliness of detection. The main limitation of the system was the low specificity i.e. the high number of clusters detected from the difference between observed and predicted productions, in the absence of disease.
format	article
author	Aurélien Madouasse Alexis Marceau Anne Lehébel Henriëtte Brouwer-Middelesch Gerdien van Schaik Yves Van der Stede Christine Fourichon
author_facet	Aurélien Madouasse Alexis Marceau Anne Lehébel Henriëtte Brouwer-Middelesch Gerdien van Schaik Yves Van der Stede Christine Fourichon
author_sort	Aurélien Madouasse
title	Evaluation of a continuous indicator for syndromic surveillance through simulation. application to vector borne disease emergence detection in cattle using milk yield.
title_short	Evaluation of a continuous indicator for syndromic surveillance through simulation. application to vector borne disease emergence detection in cattle using milk yield.
title_full	Evaluation of a continuous indicator for syndromic surveillance through simulation. application to vector borne disease emergence detection in cattle using milk yield.
title_fullStr	Evaluation of a continuous indicator for syndromic surveillance through simulation. application to vector borne disease emergence detection in cattle using milk yield.
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluation of a continuous indicator for syndromic surveillance through simulation. application to vector borne disease emergence detection in cattle using milk yield.
title_sort	evaluation of a continuous indicator for syndromic surveillance through simulation. application to vector borne disease emergence detection in cattle using milk yield.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/0f92779b355d45179fdcf420ca83adfb
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Evaluation of a continuous indicator for syndromic surveillance through simulation. application to vector borne disease emergence detection in cattle using milk yield.

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