Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines

Abstract Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment sup...

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Autores principales:	Janaka Bamunawala, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ali Dastgheib, Robert J. Nicholls, A. Brad Murray, Patrick L. Barnard, T. A. J. G. Sirisena, Trang Minh Duong, Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher, Ad van der Spek
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0f94683d627e4f0cb731dceb93fc748a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0f94683d627e4f0cb731dceb93fc748a2021-12-02T15:23:08ZTwenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines10.1038/s41598-021-93221-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/0f94683d627e4f0cb731dceb93fc748a2021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93221-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation.Janaka BamunawalaRoshanka RanasingheAli DastgheibRobert J. NichollsA. Brad MurrayPatrick L. BarnardT. A. J. G. SirisenaTrang Minh DuongSuzanne J. M. H. HulscherAd van der SpekNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Janaka Bamunawala Roshanka Ranasinghe Ali Dastgheib Robert J. Nicholls A. Brad Murray Patrick L. Barnard T. A. J. G. Sirisena Trang Minh Duong Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher Ad van der Spek Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
description	Abstract Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation.
format	article
author	Janaka Bamunawala Roshanka Ranasinghe Ali Dastgheib Robert J. Nicholls A. Brad Murray Patrick L. Barnard T. A. J. G. Sirisena Trang Minh Duong Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher Ad van der Spek
author_facet	Janaka Bamunawala Roshanka Ranasinghe Ali Dastgheib Robert J. Nicholls A. Brad Murray Patrick L. Barnard T. A. J. G. Sirisena Trang Minh Duong Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher Ad van der Spek
author_sort	Janaka Bamunawala
title	Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
title_short	Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
title_full	Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
title_fullStr	Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
title_full_unstemmed	Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
title_sort	twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0f94683d627e4f0cb731dceb93fc748a
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Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines

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