Features of Forecasting Reliability of 6—10 kV Overhead Lines According to Statistics of their Failures and Reconditionings

This work is aimed at forecasting justification of the failure time of the 6—10 kV overhead elecric lines (OEL) during the normalized period in its operation based on comparison with the statistics of failures and reconditionings on the previous intervals with the use of the OEL availability functio...

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Autor principal:	Basmanov V.G.
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN RO RU
Publicado:	Academy of Sciences of Moldova 2021
Materias:	overhead linesa coefficient of technical availability forecasting normalized interval Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering TK1-9971 Production of electric energy or power. Powerplants. Central stations TK1001-1841 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/0fd80117aedf4175a2f10da4772fb785
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:0fd80117aedf4175a2f10da4772fb785
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:0fd80117aedf4175a2f10da4772fb7852021-11-26T13:21:02ZFeatures of Forecasting Reliability of 6—10 kV Overhead Lines According to Statistics of their Failures and Reconditionings 10.52254/1857-0070.2021.4-52.011857-0070https://doaj.org/article/0fd80117aedf4175a2f10da4772fb7852021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://journal.ie.asm.md/assets/files/01_04_52_2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1857-0070This work is aimed at forecasting justification of the failure time of the 6—10 kV overhead elecric lines (OEL) during the normalized period in its operation based on comparison with the statistics of failures and reconditionings on the previous intervals with the use of the OEL availability function, statistical availability coefficient, normalized forecasting interval and the accepted values of the availability coefficient on the forecasting interval. To achieve the goal set the OL is described as an object of a multiple action, its failure and reconditioning flows are accepted as the simplest Poisson, and for the theoretical analysis of the variation character in the availability coefficient, the probability theory methods along with a mass service were used. The most significant result is justification of the use for the forecasting of the OEL failure time of a new convenient exponential expression of its availability function on the normalized period being forecasted. Unlike the accepted in the theory of reliability the availability function with two parameters (average times of work and reconditionings), the proposed expression uses one parameter of distribution (virtual non-failure operating time). The significance of the results obtained consists in that controlling the dynamics of the variation in the statistical coefficient of availability of the OEL on the previous time intervals makes it possible to forecast its failure time during the forthcoming normalized periods of operation.Basmanov V.G.Academy of Sciences of Moldovaarticleoverhead linesacoefficient of technical availabilityforecasting normalized intervalElectrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineeringTK1-9971Production of electric energy or power. Powerplants. Central stationsTK1001-1841Renewable energy sourcesTJ807-830ENRORUProblems of the Regional Energetics, Vol 4(52), Iss 4, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN RO RU
topic	overhead linesa coefficient of technical availability forecasting normalized interval Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering TK1-9971 Production of electric energy or power. Powerplants. Central stations TK1001-1841 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830
spellingShingle	overhead linesa coefficient of technical availability forecasting normalized interval Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering TK1-9971 Production of electric energy or power. Powerplants. Central stations TK1001-1841 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Basmanov V.G. Features of Forecasting Reliability of 6—10 kV Overhead Lines According to Statistics of their Failures and Reconditionings
description	This work is aimed at forecasting justification of the failure time of the 6—10 kV overhead elecric lines (OEL) during the normalized period in its operation based on comparison with the statistics of failures and reconditionings on the previous intervals with the use of the OEL availability function, statistical availability coefficient, normalized forecasting interval and the accepted values of the availability coefficient on the forecasting interval. To achieve the goal set the OL is described as an object of a multiple action, its failure and reconditioning flows are accepted as the simplest Poisson, and for the theoretical analysis of the variation character in the availability coefficient, the probability theory methods along with a mass service were used. The most significant result is justification of the use for the forecasting of the OEL failure time of a new convenient exponential expression of its availability function on the normalized period being forecasted. Unlike the accepted in the theory of reliability the availability function with two parameters (average times of work and reconditionings), the proposed expression uses one parameter of distribution (virtual non-failure operating time). The significance of the results obtained consists in that controlling the dynamics of the variation in the statistical coefficient of availability of the OEL on the previous time intervals makes it possible to forecast its failure time during the forthcoming normalized periods of operation.
format	article
author	Basmanov V.G.
author_facet	Basmanov V.G.
author_sort	Basmanov V.G.
title	Features of Forecasting Reliability of 6—10 kV Overhead Lines According to Statistics of their Failures and Reconditionings
title_short	Features of Forecasting Reliability of 6—10 kV Overhead Lines According to Statistics of their Failures and Reconditionings
title_full	Features of Forecasting Reliability of 6—10 kV Overhead Lines According to Statistics of their Failures and Reconditionings
title_fullStr	Features of Forecasting Reliability of 6—10 kV Overhead Lines According to Statistics of their Failures and Reconditionings
title_full_unstemmed	Features of Forecasting Reliability of 6—10 kV Overhead Lines According to Statistics of their Failures and Reconditionings
title_sort	features of forecasting reliability of 6—10 kv overhead lines according to statistics of their failures and reconditionings
publisher	Academy of Sciences of Moldova
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/0fd80117aedf4175a2f10da4772fb785
work_keys_str_mv	AT basmanovvg featuresofforecastingreliabilityof610kvoverheadlinesaccordingtostatisticsoftheirfailuresandreconditionings
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Features of Forecasting Reliability of 6—10 kV Overhead Lines According to Statistics of their Failures and Reconditionings

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