Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.

Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findi...

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Autores principales:	Jeffrey Shaman, Virginia E Pitzer, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T Grenfell, Marc Lipsitch
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2010
Materias:	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1023febdc30d4989a5155c18857b9208
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1023febdc30d4989a5155c18857b92082021-11-25T05:34:21ZAbsolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.1544-91731545-788510.1371/journal.pbio.1000316https://doaj.org/article/1023febdc30d4989a5155c18857b92082010-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/20186267/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1544-9173https://doaj.org/toc/1545-7885Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.Jeffrey ShamanVirginia E PitzerCécile ViboudBryan T GrenfellMarc LipsitchPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Biology, Vol 8, Iss 2, p e1000316 (2010)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Jeffrey Shaman Virginia E Pitzer Cécile Viboud Bryan T Grenfell Marc Lipsitch Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.
description	Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.
format	article
author	Jeffrey Shaman Virginia E Pitzer Cécile Viboud Bryan T Grenfell Marc Lipsitch
author_facet	Jeffrey Shaman Virginia E Pitzer Cécile Viboud Bryan T Grenfell Marc Lipsitch
author_sort	Jeffrey Shaman
title	Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.
title_short	Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.
title_full	Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.
title_fullStr	Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.
title_full_unstemmed	Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.
title_sort	absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental united states.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2010
url	https://doaj.org/article/1023febdc30d4989a5155c18857b9208
work_keys_str_mv	AT jeffreyshaman absolutehumidityandtheseasonalonsetofinfluenzainthecontinentalunitedstates AT virginiaepitzer absolutehumidityandtheseasonalonsetofinfluenzainthecontinentalunitedstates AT cecileviboud absolutehumidityandtheseasonalonsetofinfluenzainthecontinentalunitedstates AT bryantgrenfell absolutehumidityandtheseasonalonsetofinfluenzainthecontinentalunitedstates AT marclipsitch absolutehumidityandtheseasonalonsetofinfluenzainthecontinentalunitedstates
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Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States.

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