Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic.

<h4>Background</h4>With a heightened increase in concern for an influenza pandemic we sought to better understand the 1918 Influenza pandemic, the most devastating epidemic of the previous century.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We use data from several communities in...

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Autores principales:	Laura Forsberg White, Marcello Pagano
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2008
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/109d8dd703e149ffac92ba4ff12ece96
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:109d8dd703e149ffac92ba4ff12ece962021-11-25T06:13:33ZTransmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0001498https://doaj.org/article/109d8dd703e149ffac92ba4ff12ece962008-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/18231585/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>With a heightened increase in concern for an influenza pandemic we sought to better understand the 1918 Influenza pandemic, the most devastating epidemic of the previous century.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We use data from several communities in Maryland, USA as well as two ships that experienced well-documented outbreaks of influenza in 1918. Using a likelihood-based method and a nonparametric method, we estimate the serial interval and reproductive number throughout the course of each outbreak. This analysis shows the basic reproductive number to be slightly lower in the Maryland communities (between 1.34 and 3.21) than for the enclosed populations on the ships (R(0) = 4.97, SE = 3.31). Additionally the effective reproductive number declined to sub epidemic levels more quickly on the ships (within around 10 days) than in the communities (within 30-40 days). The mean serial interval for the ships was consistent (3.33, SE = 5.96 and 3.81, SE = 3.69), while the serial intervals in the communities varied substantially (between 2.83, SE = 0.53 and 8.28, SE = 951.95).<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>These results illustrate the importance of considering the population dynamics when making statements about the epidemiological parameters of Influenza. The methods that we employ for estimation of the reproductive numbers and the serial interval can be easily replicated in other populations and with other diseases.Laura Forsberg WhiteMarcello PaganoPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 3, Iss 1, p e1498 (2008)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Laura Forsberg White Marcello Pagano Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic.
description	<h4>Background</h4>With a heightened increase in concern for an influenza pandemic we sought to better understand the 1918 Influenza pandemic, the most devastating epidemic of the previous century.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We use data from several communities in Maryland, USA as well as two ships that experienced well-documented outbreaks of influenza in 1918. Using a likelihood-based method and a nonparametric method, we estimate the serial interval and reproductive number throughout the course of each outbreak. This analysis shows the basic reproductive number to be slightly lower in the Maryland communities (between 1.34 and 3.21) than for the enclosed populations on the ships (R(0) = 4.97, SE = 3.31). Additionally the effective reproductive number declined to sub epidemic levels more quickly on the ships (within around 10 days) than in the communities (within 30-40 days). The mean serial interval for the ships was consistent (3.33, SE = 5.96 and 3.81, SE = 3.69), while the serial intervals in the communities varied substantially (between 2.83, SE = 0.53 and 8.28, SE = 951.95).<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>These results illustrate the importance of considering the population dynamics when making statements about the epidemiological parameters of Influenza. The methods that we employ for estimation of the reproductive numbers and the serial interval can be easily replicated in other populations and with other diseases.
format	article
author	Laura Forsberg White Marcello Pagano
author_facet	Laura Forsberg White Marcello Pagano
author_sort	Laura Forsberg White
title	Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic.
title_short	Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic.
title_full	Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic.
title_fullStr	Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic.
title_full_unstemmed	Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic.
title_sort	transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2008
url	https://doaj.org/article/109d8dd703e149ffac92ba4ff12ece96
work_keys_str_mv	AT lauraforsbergwhite transmissibilityoftheinfluenzavirusinthe1918pandemic AT marcellopagano transmissibilityoftheinfluenzavirusinthe1918pandemic
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Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic.

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