Predicting the Likely Thermal Impact of Current and Future Dams Around the World

Abstract Selective water release from the deeper pools of reservoirs alters the temperature of downstream rivers. Thermal destabilization of downstream rivers can be detrimental to the riverine ecosystem by disturbing the growth stages of various aquatic species. To predict this impact of planned hy...

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Autores principales:	Shahryar K. Ahmad, Faisal Hossain, Gordon W. Holtgrieve, Tamlin Pavelsky, Stefano Galelli
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2021
Materias:	future dams hydropower river temperature remote sensing ecosystem sustainability Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/11055ca63a4a4006b9b0cf369f590a78
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:11055ca63a4a4006b9b0cf369f590a782021-11-23T22:36:10ZPredicting the Likely Thermal Impact of Current and Future Dams Around the World2328-427710.1029/2020EF001916https://doaj.org/article/11055ca63a4a4006b9b0cf369f590a782021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001916https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277Abstract Selective water release from the deeper pools of reservoirs alters the temperature of downstream rivers. Thermal destabilization of downstream rivers can be detrimental to the riverine ecosystem by disturbing the growth stages of various aquatic species. To predict this impact of planned hydropower dams worldwide, we present a framework called “FUture Temperatures Using River hISTory (FUTURIST).” The framework used historical records of in‐situ river temperatures for existing dams in the U.S. and remote sensing observations for those in other regions to train an artificial neural network (ANN) model that predicts temperature change between upstream and downstream rivers. Validation of FUTURIST‐modeled impacts for dams worldwide showed promising results with a root mean squared error of 2.5°C (0.9°C) and categorical accuracy of 63% (88%) during the summer (winter) season. The trained ANN model afforded prediction of the likely thermal impacts of 216 planned dams. Results suggest that during the summer season, 73% of future dams will potentially cool downstream rivers by up to 6.6°C. Winter season operations were predicted to consistently warm downstream rivers by temperatures of up to 2°C. Reservoirs that experience strong stratification have the most potential to impact downstream pre‐dam thermal regimes. For copious existing or planned dams worldwide that are yet to be mapped of their thermal impacts, FUTURIST provides an efficient path forward to carry out a global thermal assessment and design sustainable hydropower expansion plans so that the upcoming dams can be operated in a more eco‐sensitive manner than the existing ones.Shahryar K. AhmadFaisal HossainGordon W. HoltgrieveTamlin PavelskyStefano GalelliAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)articlefuture damshydropowerriver temperatureremote sensingecosystemsustainabilityEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350EcologyQH540-549.5ENEarth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	future dams hydropower river temperature remote sensing ecosystem sustainability Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	future dams hydropower river temperature remote sensing ecosystem sustainability Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Shahryar K. Ahmad Faisal Hossain Gordon W. Holtgrieve Tamlin Pavelsky Stefano Galelli Predicting the Likely Thermal Impact of Current and Future Dams Around the World
description	Abstract Selective water release from the deeper pools of reservoirs alters the temperature of downstream rivers. Thermal destabilization of downstream rivers can be detrimental to the riverine ecosystem by disturbing the growth stages of various aquatic species. To predict this impact of planned hydropower dams worldwide, we present a framework called “FUture Temperatures Using River hISTory (FUTURIST).” The framework used historical records of in‐situ river temperatures for existing dams in the U.S. and remote sensing observations for those in other regions to train an artificial neural network (ANN) model that predicts temperature change between upstream and downstream rivers. Validation of FUTURIST‐modeled impacts for dams worldwide showed promising results with a root mean squared error of 2.5°C (0.9°C) and categorical accuracy of 63% (88%) during the summer (winter) season. The trained ANN model afforded prediction of the likely thermal impacts of 216 planned dams. Results suggest that during the summer season, 73% of future dams will potentially cool downstream rivers by up to 6.6°C. Winter season operations were predicted to consistently warm downstream rivers by temperatures of up to 2°C. Reservoirs that experience strong stratification have the most potential to impact downstream pre‐dam thermal regimes. For copious existing or planned dams worldwide that are yet to be mapped of their thermal impacts, FUTURIST provides an efficient path forward to carry out a global thermal assessment and design sustainable hydropower expansion plans so that the upcoming dams can be operated in a more eco‐sensitive manner than the existing ones.
format	article
author	Shahryar K. Ahmad Faisal Hossain Gordon W. Holtgrieve Tamlin Pavelsky Stefano Galelli
author_facet	Shahryar K. Ahmad Faisal Hossain Gordon W. Holtgrieve Tamlin Pavelsky Stefano Galelli
author_sort	Shahryar K. Ahmad
title	Predicting the Likely Thermal Impact of Current and Future Dams Around the World
title_short	Predicting the Likely Thermal Impact of Current and Future Dams Around the World
title_full	Predicting the Likely Thermal Impact of Current and Future Dams Around the World
title_fullStr	Predicting the Likely Thermal Impact of Current and Future Dams Around the World
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting the Likely Thermal Impact of Current and Future Dams Around the World
title_sort	predicting the likely thermal impact of current and future dams around the world
publisher	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/11055ca63a4a4006b9b0cf369f590a78
work_keys_str_mv	AT shahryarkahmad predictingthelikelythermalimpactofcurrentandfuturedamsaroundtheworld AT faisalhossain predictingthelikelythermalimpactofcurrentandfuturedamsaroundtheworld AT gordonwholtgrieve predictingthelikelythermalimpactofcurrentandfuturedamsaroundtheworld AT tamlinpavelsky predictingthelikelythermalimpactofcurrentandfuturedamsaroundtheworld AT stefanogalelli predictingthelikelythermalimpactofcurrentandfuturedamsaroundtheworld
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Predicting the Likely Thermal Impact of Current and Future Dams Around the World

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