A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.

Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale...

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Autores principales:	Junguo Liu, Christian Folberth, Hong Yang, Johan Röckström, Karim Abbaspour, Alexander J B Zehnder
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/112f98f676c2400e937301fd8f1ad294
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:112f98f676c2400e937301fd8f1ad2942021-11-18T07:55:44ZA global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0057750https://doaj.org/article/112f98f676c2400e937301fd8f1ad2942013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23460901/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.Junguo LiuChristian FolberthHong YangJohan RöckströmKarim AbbaspourAlexander J B ZehnderPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 2, p e57750 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Junguo Liu Christian Folberth Hong Yang Johan Röckström Karim Abbaspour Alexander J B Zehnder A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.
description	Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.
format	article
author	Junguo Liu Christian Folberth Hong Yang Johan Röckström Karim Abbaspour Alexander J B Zehnder
author_facet	Junguo Liu Christian Folberth Hong Yang Johan Röckström Karim Abbaspour Alexander J B Zehnder
author_sort	Junguo Liu
title	A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.
title_short	A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.
title_full	A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.
title_fullStr	A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.
title_full_unstemmed	A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.
title_sort	global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/112f98f676c2400e937301fd8f1ad294
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A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.

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