Global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX)

Abstract At the global level, maize is the third most important crop on the basis of harvested area. Given its importance, an assessment of the variation in regional climatic suitability under climate change is critical. CliMond 10′ data were used to model the potential current and future climate di...

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Autores principales:	Nadiezhda Y. Z. Ramirez-Cabral, Lalit Kumar, Farzin Shabani
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/117b84b307c54374ac7ec9e9529713bb
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:117b84b307c54374ac7ec9e9529713bb2021-12-02T16:06:06ZGlobal alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX)10.1038/s41598-017-05804-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/117b84b307c54374ac7ec9e9529713bb2017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05804-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract At the global level, maize is the third most important crop on the basis of harvested area. Given its importance, an assessment of the variation in regional climatic suitability under climate change is critical. CliMond 10′ data were used to model the potential current and future climate distribution of maize at the global level using the CLIMEX distribution model with climate data from two general circulation models, CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, assuming an A2 emissions scenario for 2050 and 2100. The change in area under future climate was analysed at continental level and for major maize-producing countries of the world. Regions between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn indicate the highest loss of climatic suitability, contrary to poleward regions that exhibit an increase of suitability. South America shows the highest loss of climatic suitability, followed by Africa and Oceania. Asia, Europe and North America exhibit an increase in climatic suitability. This study indicates that globally, large areas that are currently suitable for maize cultivation will suffer from heat and dry stresses that may constrain production. For the first time, a model was applied worldwide, allowing for a better understanding of areas that are suitable and that may remain suitable for maize.Nadiezhda Y. Z. Ramirez-CabralLalit KumarFarzin ShabaniNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Nadiezhda Y. Z. Ramirez-Cabral Lalit Kumar Farzin Shabani Global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX)
description	Abstract At the global level, maize is the third most important crop on the basis of harvested area. Given its importance, an assessment of the variation in regional climatic suitability under climate change is critical. CliMond 10′ data were used to model the potential current and future climate distribution of maize at the global level using the CLIMEX distribution model with climate data from two general circulation models, CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, assuming an A2 emissions scenario for 2050 and 2100. The change in area under future climate was analysed at continental level and for major maize-producing countries of the world. Regions between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn indicate the highest loss of climatic suitability, contrary to poleward regions that exhibit an increase of suitability. South America shows the highest loss of climatic suitability, followed by Africa and Oceania. Asia, Europe and North America exhibit an increase in climatic suitability. This study indicates that globally, large areas that are currently suitable for maize cultivation will suffer from heat and dry stresses that may constrain production. For the first time, a model was applied worldwide, allowing for a better understanding of areas that are suitable and that may remain suitable for maize.
format	article
author	Nadiezhda Y. Z. Ramirez-Cabral Lalit Kumar Farzin Shabani
author_facet	Nadiezhda Y. Z. Ramirez-Cabral Lalit Kumar Farzin Shabani
author_sort	Nadiezhda Y. Z. Ramirez-Cabral
title	Global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX)
title_short	Global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX)
title_full	Global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX)
title_fullStr	Global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX)
title_full_unstemmed	Global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX)
title_sort	global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (climex)
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/117b84b307c54374ac7ec9e9529713bb
work_keys_str_mv	AT nadiezhdayzramirezcabral globalalterationsinareasofsuitabilityformaizeproductionfromclimatechangeandusingamechanisticspeciesdistributionmodelclimex AT lalitkumar globalalterationsinareasofsuitabilityformaizeproductionfromclimatechangeandusingamechanisticspeciesdistributionmodelclimex AT farzinshabani globalalterationsinareasofsuitabilityformaizeproductionfromclimatechangeandusingamechanisticspeciesdistributionmodelclimex
_version_	1718385069775650816

Global alterations in areas of suitability for maize production from climate change and using a mechanistic species distribution model (CLIMEX)

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