Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households

Abstract Since its emergence, the phenomenon of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by seemingly healthy individuals has become a major challenge in the effort to achieve control of the pandemic. Identifying the modes of transmission that drive this phenomenon is a perquisite in devising effective control measu...

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Autores principales:	Yehuda Arav, Ziv Klausner, Eyal Fattal
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/119d8839482945eba8651d45980d2645
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:119d8839482945eba8651d45980d26452021-12-02T16:14:09ZTheoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households10.1038/s41598-021-93579-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/119d8839482945eba8651d45980d26452021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93579-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Since its emergence, the phenomenon of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by seemingly healthy individuals has become a major challenge in the effort to achieve control of the pandemic. Identifying the modes of transmission that drive this phenomenon is a perquisite in devising effective control measures, but to date it is still under debate. To address this problem, we have formulated a detailed mathematical model of discrete human actions (such as coughs, sneezes, and touching) and the continuous decay of the virus in the environment. To take into account those discrete and continuous events we have extended the common modelling approach and employed a hybrid stochastic mathematical framework. This allowed us to calculate higher order statistics which are crucial for the reconstruction of the observed distributions. We focused on transmission within a household, the venue with the highest risk of infection and validated the model results against the observed secondary attack rate and the serial interval distribution. Detailed analysis of the model results identified the dominant driver of pre-symptomatic transmission as the contact route via hand-face transfer and showed that wearing masks and avoiding physical contact are an effective prevention strategy. These results provide a sound scientific basis to the present recommendations of the WHO and the CDC.Yehuda AravZiv KlausnerEyal FattalNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yehuda Arav Ziv Klausner Eyal Fattal Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households
description	Abstract Since its emergence, the phenomenon of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by seemingly healthy individuals has become a major challenge in the effort to achieve control of the pandemic. Identifying the modes of transmission that drive this phenomenon is a perquisite in devising effective control measures, but to date it is still under debate. To address this problem, we have formulated a detailed mathematical model of discrete human actions (such as coughs, sneezes, and touching) and the continuous decay of the virus in the environment. To take into account those discrete and continuous events we have extended the common modelling approach and employed a hybrid stochastic mathematical framework. This allowed us to calculate higher order statistics which are crucial for the reconstruction of the observed distributions. We focused on transmission within a household, the venue with the highest risk of infection and validated the model results against the observed secondary attack rate and the serial interval distribution. Detailed analysis of the model results identified the dominant driver of pre-symptomatic transmission as the contact route via hand-face transfer and showed that wearing masks and avoiding physical contact are an effective prevention strategy. These results provide a sound scientific basis to the present recommendations of the WHO and the CDC.
format	article
author	Yehuda Arav Ziv Klausner Eyal Fattal
author_facet	Yehuda Arav Ziv Klausner Eyal Fattal
author_sort	Yehuda Arav
title	Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households
title_short	Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households
title_full	Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households
title_fullStr	Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households
title_full_unstemmed	Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households
title_sort	theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic sars-cov-2 person-to-person transmission in households
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/119d8839482945eba8651d45980d2645
work_keys_str_mv	AT yehudaarav theoreticalinvestigationofpresymptomaticsarscov2persontopersontransmissioninhouseholds AT zivklausner theoreticalinvestigationofpresymptomaticsarscov2persontopersontransmissioninhouseholds AT eyalfattal theoreticalinvestigationofpresymptomaticsarscov2persontopersontransmissioninhouseholds
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Theoretical investigation of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission in households

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