Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation

Abstract Masks are a vital tool for limiting SARS-CoV-2 spread in the population. Here we utilize a mathematical model to assess the impact of masking on transmission within individual transmission pairs and at the population level. Our model quantitatively links mask efficacy to reductions in viral...

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Autores principales:	Ashish Goyal, Daniel B. Reeves, Niket Thakkar, Mike Famulare, E. Fabián Cardozo-Ojeda, Bryan T. Mayer, Joshua T. Schiffer
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/11d149a0abe748048ab4459d08ac25d7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:11d149a0abe748048ab4459d08ac25d72021-12-02T15:02:49ZSlight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation10.1038/s41598-021-91338-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/11d149a0abe748048ab4459d08ac25d72021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91338-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Masks are a vital tool for limiting SARS-CoV-2 spread in the population. Here we utilize a mathematical model to assess the impact of masking on transmission within individual transmission pairs and at the population level. Our model quantitatively links mask efficacy to reductions in viral load and subsequent transmission risk. Our results reinforce that the use of masks by both a potential transmitter and exposed person substantially reduces the probability of successful transmission, even if masks only lower exposure viral load by ~ 50%. Slight increases in mask adherence and/or efficacy above current levels would reduce the effective reproductive number (Re) substantially below 1, particularly if implemented comprehensively in potential super-spreader environments. Our model predicts that moderately efficacious masks will also lower exposure viral load tenfold among people who get infected despite masking, potentially limiting infection severity. Because peak viral load tends to occur pre-symptomatically, we also identify that antiviral therapy targeting symptomatic individuals is unlikely to impact transmission risk. Instead, antiviral therapy would only lower Re if dosed as post-exposure prophylaxis and if given to ~ 50% of newly infected people within 3 days of an exposure. These results highlight the primacy of masking relative to other biomedical interventions under consideration for limiting the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic prior to widespread implementation of a vaccine. To confirm this prediction, we used a regression model of King County, Washington data and simulated the counterfactual scenario without mask wearing to estimate that in the absence of additional interventions, mask wearing decreased Re from 1.3–1.5 to ~ 1.0 between June and September 2020.Ashish GoyalDaniel B. ReevesNiket ThakkarMike FamulareE. Fabián Cardozo-OjedaBryan T. MayerJoshua T. SchifferNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ashish Goyal Daniel B. Reeves Niket Thakkar Mike Famulare E. Fabián Cardozo-Ojeda Bryan T. Mayer Joshua T. Schiffer Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation
description	Abstract Masks are a vital tool for limiting SARS-CoV-2 spread in the population. Here we utilize a mathematical model to assess the impact of masking on transmission within individual transmission pairs and at the population level. Our model quantitatively links mask efficacy to reductions in viral load and subsequent transmission risk. Our results reinforce that the use of masks by both a potential transmitter and exposed person substantially reduces the probability of successful transmission, even if masks only lower exposure viral load by ~ 50%. Slight increases in mask adherence and/or efficacy above current levels would reduce the effective reproductive number (Re) substantially below 1, particularly if implemented comprehensively in potential super-spreader environments. Our model predicts that moderately efficacious masks will also lower exposure viral load tenfold among people who get infected despite masking, potentially limiting infection severity. Because peak viral load tends to occur pre-symptomatically, we also identify that antiviral therapy targeting symptomatic individuals is unlikely to impact transmission risk. Instead, antiviral therapy would only lower Re if dosed as post-exposure prophylaxis and if given to ~ 50% of newly infected people within 3 days of an exposure. These results highlight the primacy of masking relative to other biomedical interventions under consideration for limiting the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic prior to widespread implementation of a vaccine. To confirm this prediction, we used a regression model of King County, Washington data and simulated the counterfactual scenario without mask wearing to estimate that in the absence of additional interventions, mask wearing decreased Re from 1.3–1.5 to ~ 1.0 between June and September 2020.
format	article
author	Ashish Goyal Daniel B. Reeves Niket Thakkar Mike Famulare E. Fabián Cardozo-Ojeda Bryan T. Mayer Joshua T. Schiffer
author_facet	Ashish Goyal Daniel B. Reeves Niket Thakkar Mike Famulare E. Fabián Cardozo-Ojeda Bryan T. Mayer Joshua T. Schiffer
author_sort	Ashish Goyal
title	Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation
title_short	Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation
title_full	Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation
title_fullStr	Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation
title_full_unstemmed	Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation
title_sort	slight reduction in sars-cov-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/11d149a0abe748048ab4459d08ac25d7
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Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation

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