Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets

Abstract Models of marine mammal population dynamics have been used extensively to predict abundance. A less common application of these models is to reconstruct historical population dynamics, filling in gaps in observation data by integrating information from multiple sources. We developed an inte...

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Autores principales:	Jeffrey A. Hostetler, Julien Martin, Michael Kosempa, Holly H. Edwards, Kari A. Rood, Sheri L. Barton, Michael C. Runge
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/120b6be61e5f496fa3aca26ab54abfed
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:120b6be61e5f496fa3aca26ab54abfed2021-12-02T10:48:03ZReconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets10.1038/s41598-021-81478-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/120b6be61e5f496fa3aca26ab54abfed2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81478-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Models of marine mammal population dynamics have been used extensively to predict abundance. A less common application of these models is to reconstruct historical population dynamics, filling in gaps in observation data by integrating information from multiple sources. We developed an integrated population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) to reconstruct its population dynamics in the southwest region of the state over the past 20 years. Our model improved precision of key parameter estimates and permitted inference on poorly known parameters. Population growth was slow (averaging 1.02; 95% credible interval 1.01–1.03) but not steady, and an unusual mortality event in 2013 led to an estimated net loss of 332 (217–466) manatees. Our analyses showed that precise estimates of abundance could be derived from estimates of vital rates and a few input estimates of abundance, which may mean costly surveys to estimate abundance don’t need to be conducted as frequently. Our study also shows that retrospective analyses can be useful to: (1) model the transient dynamics of age distribution; (2) assess and communicate the conservation status of wild populations; and (3) improve our understanding of environmental effects on population dynamics and thus enhance our ability to forecast.Jeffrey A. HostetlerJulien MartinMichael KosempaHolly H. EdwardsKari A. RoodSheri L. BartonMichael C. RungeNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jeffrey A. Hostetler Julien Martin Michael Kosempa Holly H. Edwards Kari A. Rood Sheri L. Barton Michael C. Runge Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets
description	Abstract Models of marine mammal population dynamics have been used extensively to predict abundance. A less common application of these models is to reconstruct historical population dynamics, filling in gaps in observation data by integrating information from multiple sources. We developed an integrated population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) to reconstruct its population dynamics in the southwest region of the state over the past 20 years. Our model improved precision of key parameter estimates and permitted inference on poorly known parameters. Population growth was slow (averaging 1.02; 95% credible interval 1.01–1.03) but not steady, and an unusual mortality event in 2013 led to an estimated net loss of 332 (217–466) manatees. Our analyses showed that precise estimates of abundance could be derived from estimates of vital rates and a few input estimates of abundance, which may mean costly surveys to estimate abundance don’t need to be conducted as frequently. Our study also shows that retrospective analyses can be useful to: (1) model the transient dynamics of age distribution; (2) assess and communicate the conservation status of wild populations; and (3) improve our understanding of environmental effects on population dynamics and thus enhance our ability to forecast.
format	article
author	Jeffrey A. Hostetler Julien Martin Michael Kosempa Holly H. Edwards Kari A. Rood Sheri L. Barton Michael C. Runge
author_facet	Jeffrey A. Hostetler Julien Martin Michael Kosempa Holly H. Edwards Kari A. Rood Sheri L. Barton Michael C. Runge
author_sort	Jeffrey A. Hostetler
title	Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets
title_short	Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets
title_full	Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets
title_fullStr	Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets
title_full_unstemmed	Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets
title_sort	reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/120b6be61e5f496fa3aca26ab54abfed
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Reconstructing population dynamics of a threatened marine mammal using multiple data sets

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