Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries

Josef Dolejs,1 Petra Mare&scaron;ová2 1Department of Informatics and Quantitative Methods, 2Department of Economics, Faculty of Informatics and Management, University of Hradec Králové, Hradec Králové, Czech Republic Background: The answer...

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Autores principales:	Dolejs J, Marešová P
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Dove Medical Press 2017
Materias:	Mortality Age All diseases External causes Nordic countries Geriatrics RC952-954.6
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1217c2e6fa5f43eba9e1a87447165437
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1217c2e6fa5f43eba9e1a874471654372021-12-02T06:08:50ZOnset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries1178-1998https://doaj.org/article/1217c2e6fa5f43eba9e1a874471654372017-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.dovepress.com/onset-of-mortality-increase-with-age-and-age-trajectories-of-mortality-peer-reviewed-article-CIAhttps://doaj.org/toc/1178-1998Josef Dolejs,1 Petra Mare&scaron;ová2 1Department of Informatics and Quantitative Methods, 2Department of Economics, Faculty of Informatics and Management, University of Hradec Králové, Hradec Králové, Czech Republic Background: The answer to the question “At what age does aging begin?” is tightly related to the question “Where is the onset of mortality increase with age?” Age affects mortality rates from all diseases differently than it affects mortality rates from nonbiological causes. Mortality increase with age in adult populations has been modeled by many authors, and little attention has been given to mortality decrease with age after birth.Materials and methods: Nonbiological causes are excluded, and the category “all diseases” is studied. It is analyzed in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the period 1994–2011, and all possible models are screened. Age trajectories of mortality are analyzed separately: before the age category where mortality reaches its minimal value and after the age category.Results: Resulting age trajectories from all diseases showed a strong minimum, which was hidden in total mortality. The inverse proportion between mortality and age fitted in 54 of 58 cases before mortality minimum. The Gompertz model with two parameters fitted as mortality increased with age in 17 of 58 cases after mortality minimum, and the Gompertz model with a small positive quadratic term fitted data in the remaining 41 cases. The mean age where mortality reached minimal value was 8 (95% confidence interval 7.05–8.95) years. The figures depict an age where the human population has a minimal risk of death from biological causes.Conclusion: Inverse proportion and the Gompertz model fitted data on both sides of the mortality minimum, and three parameters determined the shape of the age–mortality trajectory. Life expectancy should be determined by the two standard Gompertz parameters and also by the single parameter in the model c/x. All-disease mortality represents an alternative tool to study the impact of age. All results are based on published data. Keywords: mortality, age, all diseases, external causes, Nordic countriesDolejs JMarešová PDove Medical PressarticleMortalityAgeAll diseasesExternal causesNordic countriesGeriatricsRC952-954.6ENClinical Interventions in Aging, Vol Volume 12, Pp 161-173 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Mortality Age All diseases External causes Nordic countries Geriatrics RC952-954.6
spellingShingle	Mortality Age All diseases External causes Nordic countries Geriatrics RC952-954.6 Dolejs J Marešová P Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries
description	Josef Dolejs,1 Petra Mare&scaron;ová2 1Department of Informatics and Quantitative Methods, 2Department of Economics, Faculty of Informatics and Management, University of Hradec Králové, Hradec Králové, Czech Republic Background: The answer to the question “At what age does aging begin?” is tightly related to the question “Where is the onset of mortality increase with age?” Age affects mortality rates from all diseases differently than it affects mortality rates from nonbiological causes. Mortality increase with age in adult populations has been modeled by many authors, and little attention has been given to mortality decrease with age after birth.Materials and methods: Nonbiological causes are excluded, and the category “all diseases” is studied. It is analyzed in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden during the period 1994–2011, and all possible models are screened. Age trajectories of mortality are analyzed separately: before the age category where mortality reaches its minimal value and after the age category.Results: Resulting age trajectories from all diseases showed a strong minimum, which was hidden in total mortality. The inverse proportion between mortality and age fitted in 54 of 58 cases before mortality minimum. The Gompertz model with two parameters fitted as mortality increased with age in 17 of 58 cases after mortality minimum, and the Gompertz model with a small positive quadratic term fitted data in the remaining 41 cases. The mean age where mortality reached minimal value was 8 (95% confidence interval 7.05–8.95) years. The figures depict an age where the human population has a minimal risk of death from biological causes.Conclusion: Inverse proportion and the Gompertz model fitted data on both sides of the mortality minimum, and three parameters determined the shape of the age–mortality trajectory. Life expectancy should be determined by the two standard Gompertz parameters and also by the single parameter in the model c/x. All-disease mortality represents an alternative tool to study the impact of age. All results are based on published data. Keywords: mortality, age, all diseases, external causes, Nordic countries
format	article
author	Dolejs J Marešová P
author_facet	Dolejs J Marešová P
author_sort	Dolejs J
title	Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries
title_short	Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries
title_full	Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries
title_fullStr	Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries
title_full_unstemmed	Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries
title_sort	onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four nordic countries
publisher	Dove Medical Press
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/1217c2e6fa5f43eba9e1a87447165437
work_keys_str_mv	AT dolejsj onsetofmortalityincreasewithageandagetrajectoriesofmortalityfromalldiseasesinthefournordiccountries AT maresovap onsetofmortalityincreasewithageandagetrajectoriesofmortalityfromalldiseasesinthefournordiccountries
_version_	1718400035747528704

Onset of mortality increase with age and age trajectories of mortality from all diseases in the four Nordic countries

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