Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios

Land degradation and desertification (LDD) is one of the greatest ecological challenges of today, with climate change resulting from anthropogenic factors a major cause of it. Recent projections of LDD in the Mediterranean region indicate a gradual widening of arid areas due to increased aridity and...

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Autores principales:	Veljko Perović, Ratko Kadović, Vladimir Đurđević, Dragana Pavlović, Marija Pavlović, Dragan Čakmak, Miroslava Mitrović, Pavle Pavlović
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	LDD MEDALUS Drivers Climate change SPEI Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/122df046b9494b08aa6a81729e30797d
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:122df046b9494b08aa6a81729e30797d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:122df046b9494b08aa6a81729e30797d2021-12-01T04:44:48ZMajor drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107377https://doaj.org/article/122df046b9494b08aa6a81729e30797d2021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2100042Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XLand degradation and desertification (LDD) is one of the greatest ecological challenges of today, with climate change resulting from anthropogenic factors a major cause of it. Recent projections of LDD in the Mediterranean region indicate a gradual widening of arid areas due to increased aridity and global warming by the end of the 21st century. Therefore, this study used the MEDALUS method to identify sensitivity to LDD in Western Serbia between 1986 and 2005 and to assess possible effects of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) on land degradation processes by the end of the 21st century. Likewise, analysis of possible major drivers of degradation was conducted using principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA). The study revealed that degradation processes in the study area were found to be most influenced by anthropogenic drivers (34.4%), less so by natural/anthropogenic ones (23.5%), and least by natural factors (20.1%). Results also showed that critical areas of LDD susceptibility account for nearly 37% of the study area, transitional areas cover 35%, while 27% constitutes potentially safe areas. Additionally, critical areas were projected to expand by 33.6% (RCP4.5) and 51.7% (RCP8.5) by 2100 as a result of predicted temperature increases and a reduction in precipitation in the study area. This study also revealed that the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) better explains the impact of climate change on LDD than other indices, bearing in mind the capacity of this index to detect temporal oscillations in drought in the context of climate change, and it is therefore a reliable climate parameter for this method.Veljko PerovićRatko KadovićVladimir ĐurđevićDragana PavlovićMarija PavlovićDragan ČakmakMiroslava MitrovićPavle PavlovićElsevierarticleLDDMEDALUSDriversClimate changeSPEIEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 123, Iss , Pp 107377- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	LDD MEDALUS Drivers Climate change SPEI Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	LDD MEDALUS Drivers Climate change SPEI Ecology QH540-549.5 Veljko Perović Ratko Kadović Vladimir Đurđević Dragana Pavlović Marija Pavlović Dragan Čakmak Miroslava Mitrović Pavle Pavlović Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios
description	Land degradation and desertification (LDD) is one of the greatest ecological challenges of today, with climate change resulting from anthropogenic factors a major cause of it. Recent projections of LDD in the Mediterranean region indicate a gradual widening of arid areas due to increased aridity and global warming by the end of the 21st century. Therefore, this study used the MEDALUS method to identify sensitivity to LDD in Western Serbia between 1986 and 2005 and to assess possible effects of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) on land degradation processes by the end of the 21st century. Likewise, analysis of possible major drivers of degradation was conducted using principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA). The study revealed that degradation processes in the study area were found to be most influenced by anthropogenic drivers (34.4%), less so by natural/anthropogenic ones (23.5%), and least by natural factors (20.1%). Results also showed that critical areas of LDD susceptibility account for nearly 37% of the study area, transitional areas cover 35%, while 27% constitutes potentially safe areas. Additionally, critical areas were projected to expand by 33.6% (RCP4.5) and 51.7% (RCP8.5) by 2100 as a result of predicted temperature increases and a reduction in precipitation in the study area. This study also revealed that the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) better explains the impact of climate change on LDD than other indices, bearing in mind the capacity of this index to detect temporal oscillations in drought in the context of climate change, and it is therefore a reliable climate parameter for this method.
format	article
author	Veljko Perović Ratko Kadović Vladimir Đurđević Dragana Pavlović Marija Pavlović Dragan Čakmak Miroslava Mitrović Pavle Pavlović
author_facet	Veljko Perović Ratko Kadović Vladimir Đurđević Dragana Pavlović Marija Pavlović Dragan Čakmak Miroslava Mitrović Pavle Pavlović
author_sort	Veljko Perović
title	Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios
title_short	Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios
title_full	Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios
title_fullStr	Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios
title_full_unstemmed	Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios
title_sort	major drivers of land degradation risk in western serbia: current trends and future scenarios
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/122df046b9494b08aa6a81729e30797d
work_keys_str_mv	AT veljkoperovic majordriversoflanddegradationriskinwesternserbiacurrenttrendsandfuturescenarios AT ratkokadovic majordriversoflanddegradationriskinwesternserbiacurrenttrendsandfuturescenarios AT vladimirđurđevic majordriversoflanddegradationriskinwesternserbiacurrenttrendsandfuturescenarios AT draganapavlovic majordriversoflanddegradationriskinwesternserbiacurrenttrendsandfuturescenarios AT marijapavlovic majordriversoflanddegradationriskinwesternserbiacurrenttrendsandfuturescenarios AT dragancakmak majordriversoflanddegradationriskinwesternserbiacurrenttrendsandfuturescenarios AT miroslavamitrovic majordriversoflanddegradationriskinwesternserbiacurrenttrendsandfuturescenarios AT pavlepavlovic majordriversoflanddegradationriskinwesternserbiacurrenttrendsandfuturescenarios
_version_	1718405764675010560

Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios

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