Projecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications

Abstract Bhutanitis thaidina is an endemic, rare, and protected swallowtail in China. Deforestation, habitat fragmentation, illegal commercialised capture, and exploitation of larval food plants are believed to be the four major causes of population decline of B. thaidina in the recent decade. Howev...

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Autores principales:	Shao-Ji Hu, Dong-Hui Xing, Zhi-Xian Gong, Jin-Ming Hu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2019
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1360fbdd5d304172bc8ce479fa193442
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1360fbdd5d304172bc8ce479fa1934422021-12-02T15:09:54ZProjecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications10.1038/s41598-019-51972-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/1360fbdd5d304172bc8ce479fa1934422019-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-51972-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Bhutanitis thaidina is an endemic, rare, and protected swallowtail in China. Deforestation, habitat fragmentation, illegal commercialised capture, and exploitation of larval food plants are believed to be the four major causes of population decline of B. thaidina in the recent decade. However, little attention was paid to the impact of climate change. This study used ecological niche factor analysis and species distribution model to analyse the current suitable areas for B. thaidina with BioClim variables as well as its future suitable areas under four future climate scenarios (represented by four Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Statistical analysis was carried out to compare the possible area and altitude changes to the distribution of B. thaidina under changing climate. Our analyses showed that the suitable areas for B. thaidina are fragmented under the current climate, with four suitable centres in northwestern Yunnan, northeastern Yunnan and northwestern Guizhou, the western margin of Sichuan Basin, and Qinling mountains. Apart from further habitat fragmentation under climate change, slight range expansion (average 6.0–8.9%) was detected under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, while more range contraction (average 1.3–26.9%) was detected under the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the two southern suitable centres suffering most. Also, a tendency of contraction (2,500–3,500 m) and upslope shift (~600 m) in suitable altitude range were detected. The findings of this study supported the climate-vulnerable hypothesis of B. thaidina, especially under future climate like the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, in terms of contraction in suitable areas and altitude ranges. Conservation priority should be given to northwestern Yunnan, northeastern Yunnan, and northwestern Guizhou to alleviate the stress of massive habitat loss and extinction. Refugial areas should be established in all four suitable centres to maintain genetic diversity of B. thaidina in China.Shao-Ji HuDong-Hui XingZhi-Xian GongJin-Ming HuNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Shao-Ji Hu Dong-Hui Xing Zhi-Xian Gong Jin-Ming Hu Projecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications
description	Abstract Bhutanitis thaidina is an endemic, rare, and protected swallowtail in China. Deforestation, habitat fragmentation, illegal commercialised capture, and exploitation of larval food plants are believed to be the four major causes of population decline of B. thaidina in the recent decade. However, little attention was paid to the impact of climate change. This study used ecological niche factor analysis and species distribution model to analyse the current suitable areas for B. thaidina with BioClim variables as well as its future suitable areas under four future climate scenarios (represented by four Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Statistical analysis was carried out to compare the possible area and altitude changes to the distribution of B. thaidina under changing climate. Our analyses showed that the suitable areas for B. thaidina are fragmented under the current climate, with four suitable centres in northwestern Yunnan, northeastern Yunnan and northwestern Guizhou, the western margin of Sichuan Basin, and Qinling mountains. Apart from further habitat fragmentation under climate change, slight range expansion (average 6.0–8.9%) was detected under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, while more range contraction (average 1.3–26.9%) was detected under the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the two southern suitable centres suffering most. Also, a tendency of contraction (2,500–3,500 m) and upslope shift (~600 m) in suitable altitude range were detected. The findings of this study supported the climate-vulnerable hypothesis of B. thaidina, especially under future climate like the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios, in terms of contraction in suitable areas and altitude ranges. Conservation priority should be given to northwestern Yunnan, northeastern Yunnan, and northwestern Guizhou to alleviate the stress of massive habitat loss and extinction. Refugial areas should be established in all four suitable centres to maintain genetic diversity of B. thaidina in China.
format	article
author	Shao-Ji Hu Dong-Hui Xing Zhi-Xian Gong Jin-Ming Hu
author_facet	Shao-Ji Hu Dong-Hui Xing Zhi-Xian Gong Jin-Ming Hu
author_sort	Shao-Ji Hu
title	Projecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications
title_short	Projecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications
title_full	Projecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications
title_fullStr	Projecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications
title_full_unstemmed	Projecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications
title_sort	projecting suitability and climate vulnerability of bhutanitis thaidina (blanchard) (lepidoptera: papilionidae) with conservation implications
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/1360fbdd5d304172bc8ce479fa193442
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Projecting Suitability and Climate Vulnerability of Bhutanitis thaidina (Blanchard) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) with Conservation Implications

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