Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty

After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings...

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Autores principales:	Giacomo Albi, Lorenzo Pareschi, Mattia Zanella
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	AIMS Press 2021
Materias:	epidemic modelling uncertainty quantification social structure optimal control non-pharmaceutical interventions covid-19 Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/146cfc4439a8479681c79b2a5c314dda
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:146cfc4439a8479681c79b2a5c314dda2021-11-23T01:45:11ZModelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty10.3934/mbe.20213551551-0018https://doaj.org/article/146cfc4439a8479681c79b2a5c314dda2021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2021355?viewType=HTMLhttps://doaj.org/toc/1551-0018After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a SEIRD compartmental model with a social structure based on the age of individuals and stochastic inputs that account for data uncertainty, the effects of containment measures are introduced via an optimal control problem dependent on specific social activities, such as home, work, school, etc. Through a short time horizon approximation, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on social activities that allow us to assess the impact of selective relaxation of containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. After analyzing the effects of the various controls, results from different scenarios concerning the first wave of the epidemic in some major countries, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations have been considered for each country. Numerical simulations show that a careful strategy of progressive relaxation of containment measures, such as that adopted by some governments, may be able to keep the epidemic under control by restarting various productive activities.Giacomo AlbiLorenzo PareschiMattia ZanellaAIMS Pressarticleepidemic modellinguncertainty quantificationsocial structureoptimal controlnon-pharmaceutical interventionscovid-19BiotechnologyTP248.13-248.65MathematicsQA1-939ENMathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Vol 18, Iss 6, Pp 7161-7190 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	epidemic modelling uncertainty quantification social structure optimal control non-pharmaceutical interventions covid-19 Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	epidemic modelling uncertainty quantification social structure optimal control non-pharmaceutical interventions covid-19 Biotechnology TP248.13-248.65 Mathematics QA1-939 Giacomo Albi Lorenzo Pareschi Mattia Zanella Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty
description	After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a SEIRD compartmental model with a social structure based on the age of individuals and stochastic inputs that account for data uncertainty, the effects of containment measures are introduced via an optimal control problem dependent on specific social activities, such as home, work, school, etc. Through a short time horizon approximation, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on social activities that allow us to assess the impact of selective relaxation of containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. After analyzing the effects of the various controls, results from different scenarios concerning the first wave of the epidemic in some major countries, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations have been considered for each country. Numerical simulations show that a careful strategy of progressive relaxation of containment measures, such as that adopted by some governments, may be able to keep the epidemic under control by restarting various productive activities.
format	article
author	Giacomo Albi Lorenzo Pareschi Mattia Zanella
author_facet	Giacomo Albi Lorenzo Pareschi Mattia Zanella
author_sort	Giacomo Albi
title	Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty
title_short	Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty
title_full	Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty
title_fullStr	Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty
title_sort	modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty
publisher	AIMS Press
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/146cfc4439a8479681c79b2a5c314dda
work_keys_str_mv	AT giacomoalbi modellinglockdownmeasuresinepidemicoutbreaksusingselectivesocioeconomiccontainmentwithuncertainty AT lorenzopareschi modellinglockdownmeasuresinepidemicoutbreaksusingselectivesocioeconomiccontainmentwithuncertainty AT mattiazanella modellinglockdownmeasuresinepidemicoutbreaksusingselectivesocioeconomiccontainmentwithuncertainty
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Modelling lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty

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