Data-driven modeling to assess receptivity for Rift Valley Fever virus.

Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) is an enzootic virus that causes extensive morbidity and mortality in domestic ruminants in Africa, and it has shown the potential to invade other areas such as the Arabian Peninsula. Here, we develop methods for linking mathematical models to real-world data that coul...

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Autores principales:	Christopher M Barker, Tianchan Niu, William K Reisen, David M Hartley
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/14de4460e16d496f841750b17accaad4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:14de4460e16d496f841750b17accaad42021-11-18T09:16:41ZData-driven modeling to assess receptivity for Rift Valley Fever virus.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0002515https://doaj.org/article/14de4460e16d496f841750b17accaad42013-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24244769/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) is an enzootic virus that causes extensive morbidity and mortality in domestic ruminants in Africa, and it has shown the potential to invade other areas such as the Arabian Peninsula. Here, we develop methods for linking mathematical models to real-world data that could be used for continent-scale risk assessment given adequate data on local host and vector populations. We have applied the methods to a well-studied agricultural region of California with [Formula: see text]1 million dairy cattle, abundant and competent mosquito vectors, and a permissive climate that has enabled consistent transmission of West Nile virus and historically other arboviruses. Our results suggest that RVFV outbreaks could occur from February-November, but would progress slowly during winter-early spring or early fall and be limited spatially to areas with early increases in vector abundance. Risk was greatest in summer, when the areas at risk broadened to include most of the dairy farms in the study region, indicating the potential for considerable economic losses if an introduction were to occur. To assess the threat that RVFV poses to North America, including what-if scenarios for introduction and control strategies, models such as this one should be an integral part of the process; however, modeling must be paralleled by efforts to address the numerous remaining gaps in data and knowledge for this system.Christopher M BarkerTianchan NiuWilliam K ReisenDavid M HartleyPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 11, p e2515 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Christopher M Barker Tianchan Niu William K Reisen David M Hartley Data-driven modeling to assess receptivity for Rift Valley Fever virus.
description	Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) is an enzootic virus that causes extensive morbidity and mortality in domestic ruminants in Africa, and it has shown the potential to invade other areas such as the Arabian Peninsula. Here, we develop methods for linking mathematical models to real-world data that could be used for continent-scale risk assessment given adequate data on local host and vector populations. We have applied the methods to a well-studied agricultural region of California with [Formula: see text]1 million dairy cattle, abundant and competent mosquito vectors, and a permissive climate that has enabled consistent transmission of West Nile virus and historically other arboviruses. Our results suggest that RVFV outbreaks could occur from February-November, but would progress slowly during winter-early spring or early fall and be limited spatially to areas with early increases in vector abundance. Risk was greatest in summer, when the areas at risk broadened to include most of the dairy farms in the study region, indicating the potential for considerable economic losses if an introduction were to occur. To assess the threat that RVFV poses to North America, including what-if scenarios for introduction and control strategies, models such as this one should be an integral part of the process; however, modeling must be paralleled by efforts to address the numerous remaining gaps in data and knowledge for this system.
format	article
author	Christopher M Barker Tianchan Niu William K Reisen David M Hartley
author_facet	Christopher M Barker Tianchan Niu William K Reisen David M Hartley
author_sort	Christopher M Barker
title	Data-driven modeling to assess receptivity for Rift Valley Fever virus.
title_short	Data-driven modeling to assess receptivity for Rift Valley Fever virus.
title_full	Data-driven modeling to assess receptivity for Rift Valley Fever virus.
title_fullStr	Data-driven modeling to assess receptivity for Rift Valley Fever virus.
title_full_unstemmed	Data-driven modeling to assess receptivity for Rift Valley Fever virus.
title_sort	data-driven modeling to assess receptivity for rift valley fever virus.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/14de4460e16d496f841750b17accaad4
work_keys_str_mv	AT christophermbarker datadrivenmodelingtoassessreceptivityforriftvalleyfevervirus AT tianchanniu datadrivenmodelingtoassessreceptivityforriftvalleyfevervirus AT williamkreisen datadrivenmodelingtoassessreceptivityforriftvalleyfevervirus AT davidmhartley datadrivenmodelingtoassessreceptivityforriftvalleyfevervirus
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Data-driven modeling to assess receptivity for Rift Valley Fever virus.

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