Risk Analysis of Instability Failure of Earth–Rock Dams Based on the Fuzzy Set Theory

Determining the anti-sliding instability risk of earth–rock dams involves the analysis of complex uncertain factors, which are mostly regarded as random variables in traditional analysis methods. In fact, fuzziness and randomness are two inseparable uncertainty factors influencing the stability of e...

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Autores principales:	Hexiang Zhang, Zongkun Li, Wei Li, Ziyuan Song, Wei Ge, Ruifang Han, Te Wang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	earth–rock dam instability failure fuzzy set theory fuzzy risk Monte-Carlo method Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/14e14b83b5064c40b9d1e13b6a64c918
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:14e14b83b5064c40b9d1e13b6a64c9182021-11-11T19:56:54ZRisk Analysis of Instability Failure of Earth–Rock Dams Based on the Fuzzy Set Theory10.3390/w132130882073-4441https://doaj.org/article/14e14b83b5064c40b9d1e13b6a64c9182021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3088https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441Determining the anti-sliding instability risk of earth–rock dams involves the analysis of complex uncertain factors, which are mostly regarded as random variables in traditional analysis methods. In fact, fuzziness and randomness are two inseparable uncertainty factors influencing the stability of earth–rock dams. Most previous research only focused on the randomness or the fuzziness of individual variables. Moreover, dam systems present a fuzzy transition from a stable state into a failure state. Therefore, both fuzziness and randomness of the influencing factors should be considered in the same framework, where the instability of an earth–rock dam is regarded as a mixed process. In this paper, a fuzzy risk model of instability of earth–rock dams is established by considering the randomness and fuzziness of parameters and the failure criteria comprehensively. We obtained the probability threshold of instability risk of earth–rock dams by Monte-Carlo simulation after the fuzzy parameters were transformed into interval numbers by cut set levels. By applying the proposed model to the instability analysis of the Longxingsi Reservoir, the calculation results showed that the lower limits of risk probability under different cut set levels exceeded the instability risk standard of grade C for earth–rock dams. Compared with the traditional risk determination value, the risk interval obtained with the proposed methods reflects different degrees of dam instability risk and can provide reference for dam structure safety assessment and management.Hexiang ZhangZongkun LiWei LiZiyuan SongWei GeRuifang HanTe WangMDPI AGarticleearth–rock daminstability failurefuzzy set theoryfuzzy riskMonte-Carlo methodHydraulic engineeringTC1-978Water supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500ENWater, Vol 13, Iss 3088, p 3088 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	earth–rock dam instability failure fuzzy set theory fuzzy risk Monte-Carlo method Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
spellingShingle	earth–rock dam instability failure fuzzy set theory fuzzy risk Monte-Carlo method Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Hexiang Zhang Zongkun Li Wei Li Ziyuan Song Wei Ge Ruifang Han Te Wang Risk Analysis of Instability Failure of Earth–Rock Dams Based on the Fuzzy Set Theory
description	Determining the anti-sliding instability risk of earth–rock dams involves the analysis of complex uncertain factors, which are mostly regarded as random variables in traditional analysis methods. In fact, fuzziness and randomness are two inseparable uncertainty factors influencing the stability of earth–rock dams. Most previous research only focused on the randomness or the fuzziness of individual variables. Moreover, dam systems present a fuzzy transition from a stable state into a failure state. Therefore, both fuzziness and randomness of the influencing factors should be considered in the same framework, where the instability of an earth–rock dam is regarded as a mixed process. In this paper, a fuzzy risk model of instability of earth–rock dams is established by considering the randomness and fuzziness of parameters and the failure criteria comprehensively. We obtained the probability threshold of instability risk of earth–rock dams by Monte-Carlo simulation after the fuzzy parameters were transformed into interval numbers by cut set levels. By applying the proposed model to the instability analysis of the Longxingsi Reservoir, the calculation results showed that the lower limits of risk probability under different cut set levels exceeded the instability risk standard of grade C for earth–rock dams. Compared with the traditional risk determination value, the risk interval obtained with the proposed methods reflects different degrees of dam instability risk and can provide reference for dam structure safety assessment and management.
format	article
author	Hexiang Zhang Zongkun Li Wei Li Ziyuan Song Wei Ge Ruifang Han Te Wang
author_facet	Hexiang Zhang Zongkun Li Wei Li Ziyuan Song Wei Ge Ruifang Han Te Wang
author_sort	Hexiang Zhang
title	Risk Analysis of Instability Failure of Earth–Rock Dams Based on the Fuzzy Set Theory
title_short	Risk Analysis of Instability Failure of Earth–Rock Dams Based on the Fuzzy Set Theory
title_full	Risk Analysis of Instability Failure of Earth–Rock Dams Based on the Fuzzy Set Theory
title_fullStr	Risk Analysis of Instability Failure of Earth–Rock Dams Based on the Fuzzy Set Theory
title_full_unstemmed	Risk Analysis of Instability Failure of Earth–Rock Dams Based on the Fuzzy Set Theory
title_sort	risk analysis of instability failure of earth–rock dams based on the fuzzy set theory
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/14e14b83b5064c40b9d1e13b6a64c918
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Risk Analysis of Instability Failure of Earth–Rock Dams Based on the Fuzzy Set Theory

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