Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia
Despite the low occurrence of tropical cyclones at the archipelago of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina (Colombia), Hurricane Iota in 2020 made evident the area vulnerability to tropical cyclones as major hazards by obliterating 56.4 % of housing, partially destroying the remaining houses...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:14ee50e907a84f9b8f5ad450665eea1a2021-11-15T04:52:52ZHurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia2296-774510.3389/fmars.2021.766258https://doaj.org/article/14ee50e907a84f9b8f5ad450665eea1a2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.766258/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745Despite the low occurrence of tropical cyclones at the archipelago of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina (Colombia), Hurricane Iota in 2020 made evident the area vulnerability to tropical cyclones as major hazards by obliterating 56.4 % of housing, partially destroying the remaining houses in Providencia. We investigated the hurricane storm surge inundation in the archipelago by forcing hydrodynamic models with synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical hurricanes. The storm surge from synthetic events allowed identifying the strongest surges using the probability distribution, enabling the generation of hurricane storm surge flood maps for 100 and 500 year return periods. This analysis suggested that the east of San Andres and Providencia are the more likely areas to be flooded from hurricanes storm surges. The hypothetical events were used to force the hydrodynamic model to create worst-case flood scenario maps, useful for contingency and development planning. Additionally, Hurricane Iota flood levels were calculated using 2D and 1D models. The 2D model included storm surge (SS), SS with astronomical tides (AT), and SS with AT and wave setup (WS), resulting in a total flooded area (percentage related to Providencia’s total area) of 67.05 ha (3.25 %), 65.23 ha (3.16 %), and 76.68 ha (3.68%), respectively. While Hurricane Iota occurred during low tide, the WS contributed 14.93 % (11.45 ha) of the total flooded area in Providencia. The 1D approximation showed that during the storm peak in the eastern of the island, the contribution of AT, SS, and wave runup to the maximum sea water level was −3.01%, 46.36%, and 56.55 %, respectively. This finding provides evidence of the water level underestimation in insular environments when modeling SS without wave contributions. The maximum SS derived from Iota was 1.25 m at the east of Providencia, which according to this study has an associated return period of 3,234 years. The methodology proposed in this study can be applied to other coastal zones and may include the effect of climate change on hurricane storm surges and sea-level rise. Results from this study are useful for emergency managers, government, coastal communities, and policymakers as civil protection measures.Wilmer ReyWilmer ReyPablo Ruiz-SalcinesPaulo SallesPaulo SallesClaudia P. Urbano-LatorreGermán Escobar-OlayaAndrés F. OsorioJuan Pablo RamírezAngélica Cabarcas-MierAngélica Cabarcas-MierBismarck Jigena-AnteloChristian M. AppendiniChristian M. AppendiniFrontiers Media S.A.articletropical cyclonesstorm surgewave setuprunupColombian insular CaribbeanArchipelago of San AndresScienceQGeneral. Including nature conservation, geographical distributionQH1-199.5ENFrontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021) |
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| language |
EN |
| topic |
tropical cyclones storm surge wave setup runup Colombian insular Caribbean Archipelago of San Andres Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
| spellingShingle |
tropical cyclones storm surge wave setup runup Colombian insular Caribbean Archipelago of San Andres Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Wilmer Rey Wilmer Rey Pablo Ruiz-Salcines Paulo Salles Paulo Salles Claudia P. Urbano-Latorre Germán Escobar-Olaya Andrés F. Osorio Juan Pablo Ramírez Angélica Cabarcas-Mier Angélica Cabarcas-Mier Bismarck Jigena-Antelo Christian M. Appendini Christian M. Appendini Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia |
| description |
Despite the low occurrence of tropical cyclones at the archipelago of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina (Colombia), Hurricane Iota in 2020 made evident the area vulnerability to tropical cyclones as major hazards by obliterating 56.4 % of housing, partially destroying the remaining houses in Providencia. We investigated the hurricane storm surge inundation in the archipelago by forcing hydrodynamic models with synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical hurricanes. The storm surge from synthetic events allowed identifying the strongest surges using the probability distribution, enabling the generation of hurricane storm surge flood maps for 100 and 500 year return periods. This analysis suggested that the east of San Andres and Providencia are the more likely areas to be flooded from hurricanes storm surges. The hypothetical events were used to force the hydrodynamic model to create worst-case flood scenario maps, useful for contingency and development planning. Additionally, Hurricane Iota flood levels were calculated using 2D and 1D models. The 2D model included storm surge (SS), SS with astronomical tides (AT), and SS with AT and wave setup (WS), resulting in a total flooded area (percentage related to Providencia’s total area) of 67.05 ha (3.25 %), 65.23 ha (3.16 %), and 76.68 ha (3.68%), respectively. While Hurricane Iota occurred during low tide, the WS contributed 14.93 % (11.45 ha) of the total flooded area in Providencia. The 1D approximation showed that during the storm peak in the eastern of the island, the contribution of AT, SS, and wave runup to the maximum sea water level was −3.01%, 46.36%, and 56.55 %, respectively. This finding provides evidence of the water level underestimation in insular environments when modeling SS without wave contributions. The maximum SS derived from Iota was 1.25 m at the east of Providencia, which according to this study has an associated return period of 3,234 years. The methodology proposed in this study can be applied to other coastal zones and may include the effect of climate change on hurricane storm surges and sea-level rise. Results from this study are useful for emergency managers, government, coastal communities, and policymakers as civil protection measures. |
| format |
article |
| author |
Wilmer Rey Wilmer Rey Pablo Ruiz-Salcines Paulo Salles Paulo Salles Claudia P. Urbano-Latorre Germán Escobar-Olaya Andrés F. Osorio Juan Pablo Ramírez Angélica Cabarcas-Mier Angélica Cabarcas-Mier Bismarck Jigena-Antelo Christian M. Appendini Christian M. Appendini |
| author_facet |
Wilmer Rey Wilmer Rey Pablo Ruiz-Salcines Paulo Salles Paulo Salles Claudia P. Urbano-Latorre Germán Escobar-Olaya Andrés F. Osorio Juan Pablo Ramírez Angélica Cabarcas-Mier Angélica Cabarcas-Mier Bismarck Jigena-Antelo Christian M. Appendini Christian M. Appendini |
| author_sort |
Wilmer Rey |
| title |
Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia |
| title_short |
Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia |
| title_full |
Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia |
| title_fullStr |
Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Hurricane Flood Hazard Assessment for the Archipelago of San Andres, Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia |
| title_sort |
hurricane flood hazard assessment for the archipelago of san andres, providencia and santa catalina, colombia |
| publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/14ee50e907a84f9b8f5ad450665eea1a |
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