Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios

The distribution dynamics of invasive alien plants is the fundamental information for early detection and rapid response (EDRR) to these species in a new habitat. Based on the field survey data and online databases, the present research work utilized Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) to simulate the di...

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Autores principales:	Wenqin Tu, Qinli Xiong, Xiaoping Qiu, Yongmei Zhang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Invasive alien plant species Ecological niche modelling Core distribution Driving factors Shared socio-economic pathways Climate change Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1537d80921284884abfda42a818569a8
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:1537d80921284884abfda42a818569a8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1537d80921284884abfda42a818569a82021-12-01T04:55:48ZDynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107919https://doaj.org/article/1537d80921284884abfda42a818569a82021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21005847https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XThe distribution dynamics of invasive alien plants is the fundamental information for early detection and rapid response (EDRR) to these species in a new habitat. Based on the field survey data and online databases, the present research work utilized Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) to simulate the distribution dynamics of four invasive plants Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) R. M. King et H. Rob., Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb., Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. and Mikania micrantha Kunth in China, under current and future climate (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) in two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs: SSP 245 and 585) of the newly released coupled model intercomparison project phase6 (CMIP6). All the suitable habitat areas of these plants will significantly expand in the future, but at different expansion levels. M. micrantha will have the largest distribution area (increase by 61–120%), while A. adenophora will expand by 7–33%, A. philoxeroides by 12–74%, and A. artemisiifolia by 8–27%, respectively. Additionally, the habitat centers of the four species will shift to north, i.e., A. philoxeroides, A. artemisiifolia and M. micrantha to northwest, and A. adenophora to northeast, except that the core distributions of A. adenophora and A. artemisiifolia will move to southwest under one certain environment scenario (SSP 245 in the period of 2061–2080). Compared to aspect index and slope topographical variables, the population density, temperature, and precipitation are found to be more important variables in describing the distribution of these plants. The dynamics of habitats of these four species and the correlating driver factors proposed in this work provide essential insights into future spatial management of invasive plants and biodiversity conservation in China, which is, not only human activities should be regulated and the migration of invasive species be reduced, but also the monitoring of high-risk areas should be strengthened in order to ensure effective EDRR.Wenqin TuQinli XiongXiaoping QiuYongmei ZhangElsevierarticleInvasive alien plant speciesEcological niche modellingCore distributionDriving factorsShared socio-economic pathwaysClimate changeEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 129, Iss , Pp 107919- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Invasive alien plant species Ecological niche modelling Core distribution Driving factors Shared socio-economic pathways Climate change Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Invasive alien plant species Ecological niche modelling Core distribution Driving factors Shared socio-economic pathways Climate change Ecology QH540-549.5 Wenqin Tu Qinli Xiong Xiaoping Qiu Yongmei Zhang Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios
description	The distribution dynamics of invasive alien plants is the fundamental information for early detection and rapid response (EDRR) to these species in a new habitat. Based on the field survey data and online databases, the present research work utilized Maximum Entropy model (Maxent) to simulate the distribution dynamics of four invasive plants Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) R. M. King et H. Rob., Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb., Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. and Mikania micrantha Kunth in China, under current and future climate (2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) in two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs: SSP 245 and 585) of the newly released coupled model intercomparison project phase6 (CMIP6). All the suitable habitat areas of these plants will significantly expand in the future, but at different expansion levels. M. micrantha will have the largest distribution area (increase by 61–120%), while A. adenophora will expand by 7–33%, A. philoxeroides by 12–74%, and A. artemisiifolia by 8–27%, respectively. Additionally, the habitat centers of the four species will shift to north, i.e., A. philoxeroides, A. artemisiifolia and M. micrantha to northwest, and A. adenophora to northeast, except that the core distributions of A. adenophora and A. artemisiifolia will move to southwest under one certain environment scenario (SSP 245 in the period of 2061–2080). Compared to aspect index and slope topographical variables, the population density, temperature, and precipitation are found to be more important variables in describing the distribution of these plants. The dynamics of habitats of these four species and the correlating driver factors proposed in this work provide essential insights into future spatial management of invasive plants and biodiversity conservation in China, which is, not only human activities should be regulated and the migration of invasive species be reduced, but also the monitoring of high-risk areas should be strengthened in order to ensure effective EDRR.
format	article
author	Wenqin Tu Qinli Xiong Xiaoping Qiu Yongmei Zhang
author_facet	Wenqin Tu Qinli Xiong Xiaoping Qiu Yongmei Zhang
author_sort	Wenqin Tu
title	Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios
title_short	Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios
title_full	Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios
title_fullStr	Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios
title_full_unstemmed	Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios
title_sort	dynamics of invasive alien plant species in china under climate change scenarios
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1537d80921284884abfda42a818569a8
work_keys_str_mv	AT wenqintu dynamicsofinvasivealienplantspeciesinchinaunderclimatechangescenarios AT qinlixiong dynamicsofinvasivealienplantspeciesinchinaunderclimatechangescenarios AT xiaopingqiu dynamicsofinvasivealienplantspeciesinchinaunderclimatechangescenarios AT yongmeizhang dynamicsofinvasivealienplantspeciesinchinaunderclimatechangescenarios
_version_	1718405646787805184

Dynamics of invasive alien plant species in China under climate change scenarios

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