Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context

Abstract We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups...

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Autores principales:	Subhendu Paul, Emmanuel Lorin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/15914ebea23d4f0c98511ed80d9e755e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:15914ebea23d4f0c98511ed80d9e755e2021-12-02T16:04:18ZDistribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context10.1038/s41598-021-91834-82045-2322https://doaj.org/article/15914ebea23d4f0c98511ed80d9e755e2021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91834-8https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost computational complexity to estimate the incubation period.Subhendu PaulEmmanuel LorinNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Subhendu Paul Emmanuel Lorin Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
description	Abstract We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost computational complexity to estimate the incubation period.
format	article
author	Subhendu Paul Emmanuel Lorin
author_facet	Subhendu Paul Emmanuel Lorin
author_sort	Subhendu Paul
title	Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_short	Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_full	Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_fullStr	Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_full_unstemmed	Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context
title_sort	distribution of incubation periods of covid-19 in the canadian context
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/15914ebea23d4f0c98511ed80d9e755e
work_keys_str_mv	AT subhendupaul distributionofincubationperiodsofcovid19inthecanadiancontext AT emmanuellorin distributionofincubationperiodsofcovid19inthecanadiancontext
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Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context

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