Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens

When a novel pathogen emerges there may be opportunities to eliminate transmission - locally or globally - whilst case numbers are low. However, the effort required to push a disease to elimination may come at a vast cost at a time when uncertainty is high. Models currently inform policy discussions...

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Autores principales:	C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Soa Fy Andriamandimby, Rachel E. Baker, Emma E. Glennon, Katie Hampson, T. Deirdre Hollingsworth, Petra Klepac, Amy Wesolowski
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Endemic Epidemic Mathematical model Elimination Emergence Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1620b4d9776949eaa56b77cee144bea0
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:1620b4d9776949eaa56b77cee144bea0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1620b4d9776949eaa56b77cee144bea02021-11-24T04:27:33ZChallenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens1755-436510.1016/j.epidem.2021.100507https://doaj.org/article/1620b4d9776949eaa56b77cee144bea02021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436521000566https://doaj.org/toc/1755-4365When a novel pathogen emerges there may be opportunities to eliminate transmission - locally or globally - whilst case numbers are low. However, the effort required to push a disease to elimination may come at a vast cost at a time when uncertainty is high. Models currently inform policy discussions on this question, but there are a number of open challenges, particularly given unknown aspects of the pathogen biology, the effectiveness and feasibility of interventions, and the intersecting political, economic, sociological and behavioural complexities for a novel pathogen. In this overview, we detail how models might identify directions for better leveraging or expanding the scope of data available on the pathogen trajectory, for bounding the theoretical context of emergence relative to prospects for elimination, and for framing the larger economic, behavioural and social context that will influence policy decisions and the pathogen’s outcome.C. Jessica E. MetcalfSoa Fy AndriamandimbyRachel E. BakerEmma E. GlennonKatie HampsonT. Deirdre HollingsworthPetra KlepacAmy WesolowskiElsevierarticleEndemicEpidemicMathematical modelEliminationEmergenceInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENEpidemics, Vol 37, Iss , Pp 100507- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Endemic Epidemic Mathematical model Elimination Emergence Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	Endemic Epidemic Mathematical model Elimination Emergence Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 C. Jessica E. Metcalf Soa Fy Andriamandimby Rachel E. Baker Emma E. Glennon Katie Hampson T. Deirdre Hollingsworth Petra Klepac Amy Wesolowski Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens
description	When a novel pathogen emerges there may be opportunities to eliminate transmission - locally or globally - whilst case numbers are low. However, the effort required to push a disease to elimination may come at a vast cost at a time when uncertainty is high. Models currently inform policy discussions on this question, but there are a number of open challenges, particularly given unknown aspects of the pathogen biology, the effectiveness and feasibility of interventions, and the intersecting political, economic, sociological and behavioural complexities for a novel pathogen. In this overview, we detail how models might identify directions for better leveraging or expanding the scope of data available on the pathogen trajectory, for bounding the theoretical context of emergence relative to prospects for elimination, and for framing the larger economic, behavioural and social context that will influence policy decisions and the pathogen’s outcome.
format	article
author	C. Jessica E. Metcalf Soa Fy Andriamandimby Rachel E. Baker Emma E. Glennon Katie Hampson T. Deirdre Hollingsworth Petra Klepac Amy Wesolowski
author_facet	C. Jessica E. Metcalf Soa Fy Andriamandimby Rachel E. Baker Emma E. Glennon Katie Hampson T. Deirdre Hollingsworth Petra Klepac Amy Wesolowski
author_sort	C. Jessica E. Metcalf
title	Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens
title_short	Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens
title_full	Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens
title_fullStr	Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens
title_full_unstemmed	Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens
title_sort	challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1620b4d9776949eaa56b77cee144bea0
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Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens

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