Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change

Abstract Drylands are home to over 2 billion people globally, many of whom use the land for agricultural and pastoral activities. These vulnerable livelihoods could be disrupted if desert dunefields become more active in response to climate and land use change. Despite increasing knowledge about the...

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Autores principales:	Jerome R. Mayaud, Richard M. Bailey, Giles F. S. Wiggs
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/162c12c7a4e04037b8eeee6a3f264c8a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:162c12c7a4e04037b8eeee6a3f264c8a2021-12-02T15:05:08ZModelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change10.1038/s41598-017-04341-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/162c12c7a4e04037b8eeee6a3f264c8a2017-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04341-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Drylands are home to over 2 billion people globally, many of whom use the land for agricultural and pastoral activities. These vulnerable livelihoods could be disrupted if desert dunefields become more active in response to climate and land use change. Despite increasing knowledge about the role that wind, moisture availability and vegetation cover play in shaping dryland landscapes, relatively little is known about how drylands might respond to climatic and population pressures over the 21st century. Here we use a newly developed numerical model, which fully couples vegetation and sediment-transport dynamics, to simulate potential landscape evolution at three locations in the Kalahari Desert, under two future emissions scenarios: stabilising (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5). Our simulations suggest that whilst our study sites will experience some climatically-induced landscape change, the impacts of climate change alone on vegetation cover and sediment mobility may be relatively small. However, human activity could strongly exacerbate certain landscape trajectories. Fire frequency has a primary impact on vegetation cover, and, together with grazing pressure, plays a significant role in modulating shrub encroachment and ensuing land degradation processes. Appropriate land management strategies must be implemented across the Kalahari Desert to avoid severe environmental and socio-economic consequences over the coming decades.Jerome R. MayaudRichard M. BaileyGiles F. S. WiggsNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jerome R. Mayaud Richard M. Bailey Giles F. S. Wiggs Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change
description	Abstract Drylands are home to over 2 billion people globally, many of whom use the land for agricultural and pastoral activities. These vulnerable livelihoods could be disrupted if desert dunefields become more active in response to climate and land use change. Despite increasing knowledge about the role that wind, moisture availability and vegetation cover play in shaping dryland landscapes, relatively little is known about how drylands might respond to climatic and population pressures over the 21st century. Here we use a newly developed numerical model, which fully couples vegetation and sediment-transport dynamics, to simulate potential landscape evolution at three locations in the Kalahari Desert, under two future emissions scenarios: stabilising (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5). Our simulations suggest that whilst our study sites will experience some climatically-induced landscape change, the impacts of climate change alone on vegetation cover and sediment mobility may be relatively small. However, human activity could strongly exacerbate certain landscape trajectories. Fire frequency has a primary impact on vegetation cover, and, together with grazing pressure, plays a significant role in modulating shrub encroachment and ensuing land degradation processes. Appropriate land management strategies must be implemented across the Kalahari Desert to avoid severe environmental and socio-economic consequences over the coming decades.
format	article
author	Jerome R. Mayaud Richard M. Bailey Giles F. S. Wiggs
author_facet	Jerome R. Mayaud Richard M. Bailey Giles F. S. Wiggs
author_sort	Jerome R. Mayaud
title	Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change
title_short	Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change
title_full	Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change
title_fullStr	Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change
title_full_unstemmed	Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change
title_sort	modelled responses of the kalahari desert to 21st century climate and land use change
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/162c12c7a4e04037b8eeee6a3f264c8a
work_keys_str_mv	AT jeromermayaud modelledresponsesofthekalaharidesertto21stcenturyclimateandlandusechange AT richardmbailey modelledresponsesofthekalaharidesertto21stcenturyclimateandlandusechange AT gilesfswiggs modelledresponsesofthekalaharidesertto21stcenturyclimateandlandusechange
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Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change

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