PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins

The problem of drought in the Brazilian semiarid region is one of the limiting factors for economic development of the region, since the lack of water also hindering the lives of thousands of people, prevents various income-generating activities to be conducted. In face of this problem the federal g...

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Autores principales:	Guilherme Nunes Martins, Wellington Ribeiro Justo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN ES FR PT
Publicado:	Universidade Federal do Maranhão 2014
Materias:	demand forecasting water semiarid box jenkins models time series Political science J Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/163891ac3c554422a6eb41781a38a243
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:163891ac3c554422a6eb41781a38a2432021-11-11T15:50:45ZPREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins2178-2865https://doaj.org/article/163891ac3c554422a6eb41781a38a2432014-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=321133267024https://doaj.org/toc/2178-2865The problem of drought in the Brazilian semiarid region is one of the limiting factors for economic development of the region, since the lack of water also hindering the lives of thousands of people, prevents various income-generating activities to be conducted. In face of this problem the federal government created the program emergency water distribution of the federal government known as “Operation Pipa”. Thus, this study aims to forecast demand for this service water supply in this region considering that such information is significant in the process of decision making time to allocate the available resources and the development of more effective policies. For this we used the Box-Jenkins methodology for the period January 2003 to August 2010, provided by the Ministry of National Integration, through the Secretary of National Defense and by the Land Operations Command of the Brazilian Army. The results showed that the model was most appropriate seasonal model SARIMA (2,0,1) (1,1,0) 12. Forecasts suggest that there is indeed an increase in demand for water in the region. Concludes that only effective measures of dealing with the drought that could reverse such need.Guilherme Nunes MartinsWellington Ribeiro JustoUniversidade Federal do Maranhãoarticledemand forecastingwatersemiaridboxjenkins modelstime seriesPolitical scienceJPolitical institutions and public administration (General)JF20-2112ENESFRPTRevista de Políticas Públicas, Vol 18, Iss 2, Pp 631-645 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN ES FR PT
topic	demand forecasting water semiarid box jenkins models time series Political science J Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112
spellingShingle	demand forecasting water semiarid box jenkins models time series Political science J Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112 Guilherme Nunes Martins Wellington Ribeiro Justo PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins
description	The problem of drought in the Brazilian semiarid region is one of the limiting factors for economic development of the region, since the lack of water also hindering the lives of thousands of people, prevents various income-generating activities to be conducted. In face of this problem the federal government created the program emergency water distribution of the federal government known as “Operation Pipa”. Thus, this study aims to forecast demand for this service water supply in this region considering that such information is significant in the process of decision making time to allocate the available resources and the development of more effective policies. For this we used the Box-Jenkins methodology for the period January 2003 to August 2010, provided by the Ministry of National Integration, through the Secretary of National Defense and by the Land Operations Command of the Brazilian Army. The results showed that the model was most appropriate seasonal model SARIMA (2,0,1) (1,1,0) 12. Forecasts suggest that there is indeed an increase in demand for water in the region. Concludes that only effective measures of dealing with the drought that could reverse such need.
format	article
author	Guilherme Nunes Martins Wellington Ribeiro Justo
author_facet	Guilherme Nunes Martins Wellington Ribeiro Justo
author_sort	Guilherme Nunes Martins
title	PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins
title_short	PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins
title_full	PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins
title_fullStr	PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins
title_full_unstemmed	PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins
title_sort	previsão pelo serviço de fornecimento de água no semiárido brasileiro: uma aplicação dos modelos box-jenkins
publisher	Universidade Federal do Maranhão
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/163891ac3c554422a6eb41781a38a243
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PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins

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