Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System

This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term dev...

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Autores principales:	Stefan N. Petrović, Oleksandr Diachuk, Roman Podolets, Andrii Semeniuk, Fabian Bühler, Rune Grandal, Mourad Boucenna, Olexandr Balyk
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	energy systems modelling scenario analysis TIMES-Ukraine decarbonisation paris agreement electrification Technology T
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/17331815ddb34ed791d965793fe5240f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:17331815ddb34ed791d965793fe5240f2021-11-25T17:28:20ZExploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System10.3390/en142277311996-1073https://doaj.org/article/17331815ddb34ed791d965793fe5240f2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/22/7731https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term development of the Ukrainian energy system. This study utilises the TIMES-Ukraine model of the whole Ukrainian energy system to address this knowledge gap and to analyse how the energy system may develop until 2050, taking into current and future policies. The results show the development of the Ukrainian energy system based on energy efficiency improvements, electrification and renewable energy. The share of renewables in electricity production is predicted to reach between 45% and 57% in 2050 in the main scenarios with moderate emission reduction ambitions and ~80% in the ambitious alternative scenarios. The cost-optimal solution includes reduction of space heating demand in buildings by 20% in frozen policy and 70% in other scenarios, while electrification of industries leads to reductions in energy intensity of 26–36% in all scenarios except frozen policy. Energy efficiency improvements and emission reductions in the transport sector are achieved through increased use of electricity from 2020 in all scenarios except frozen policy, reaching 40–51% in 2050. The stated policies present a cost-efficient alternative for keeping Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions at today’s level.Stefan N. PetrovićOleksandr DiachukRoman PodoletsAndrii SemeniukFabian BühlerRune GrandalMourad BoucennaOlexandr BalykMDPI AGarticleenergy systems modellingscenario analysisTIMES-Ukrainedecarbonisationparis agreementelectrificationTechnologyTENEnergies, Vol 14, Iss 7731, p 7731 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	energy systems modelling scenario analysis TIMES-Ukraine decarbonisation paris agreement electrification Technology T
spellingShingle	energy systems modelling scenario analysis TIMES-Ukraine decarbonisation paris agreement electrification Technology T Stefan N. Petrović Oleksandr Diachuk Roman Podolets Andrii Semeniuk Fabian Bühler Rune Grandal Mourad Boucenna Olexandr Balyk Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System
description	This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term development of the Ukrainian energy system. This study utilises the TIMES-Ukraine model of the whole Ukrainian energy system to address this knowledge gap and to analyse how the energy system may develop until 2050, taking into current and future policies. The results show the development of the Ukrainian energy system based on energy efficiency improvements, electrification and renewable energy. The share of renewables in electricity production is predicted to reach between 45% and 57% in 2050 in the main scenarios with moderate emission reduction ambitions and ~80% in the ambitious alternative scenarios. The cost-optimal solution includes reduction of space heating demand in buildings by 20% in frozen policy and 70% in other scenarios, while electrification of industries leads to reductions in energy intensity of 26–36% in all scenarios except frozen policy. Energy efficiency improvements and emission reductions in the transport sector are achieved through increased use of electricity from 2020 in all scenarios except frozen policy, reaching 40–51% in 2050. The stated policies present a cost-efficient alternative for keeping Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions at today’s level.
format	article
author	Stefan N. Petrović Oleksandr Diachuk Roman Podolets Andrii Semeniuk Fabian Bühler Rune Grandal Mourad Boucenna Olexandr Balyk
author_facet	Stefan N. Petrović Oleksandr Diachuk Roman Podolets Andrii Semeniuk Fabian Bühler Rune Grandal Mourad Boucenna Olexandr Balyk
author_sort	Stefan N. Petrović
title	Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System
title_short	Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System
title_full	Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System
title_fullStr	Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System
title_full_unstemmed	Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System
title_sort	exploring the long-term development of the ukrainian energy system
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/17331815ddb34ed791d965793fe5240f
work_keys_str_mv	AT stefannpetrovic exploringthelongtermdevelopmentoftheukrainianenergysystem AT oleksandrdiachuk exploringthelongtermdevelopmentoftheukrainianenergysystem AT romanpodolets exploringthelongtermdevelopmentoftheukrainianenergysystem AT andriisemeniuk exploringthelongtermdevelopmentoftheukrainianenergysystem AT fabianbuhler exploringthelongtermdevelopmentoftheukrainianenergysystem AT runegrandal exploringthelongtermdevelopmentoftheukrainianenergysystem AT mouradboucenna exploringthelongtermdevelopmentoftheukrainianenergysystem AT olexandrbalyk exploringthelongtermdevelopmentoftheukrainianenergysystem
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Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System

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