Assessing the appropriateness of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method for the syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory infection in Mauritius.

<h4>Introduction</h4>Mauritius introduced Acute respiratory infection (ARI) syndromic surveillance in 2007. The Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) and the World Health Organization Average Curve Method (WHO ACM) have been used widely in several countries to establish thresholds to determine th...

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Autores principales:	Mohabeer Teeluck, Atsushi Samura
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/17554b797ea04a9fb12d931b33fd8d20
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:17554b797ea04a9fb12d931b33fd8d202021-12-02T20:11:05ZAssessing the appropriateness of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method for the syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory infection in Mauritius.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0252703https://doaj.org/article/17554b797ea04a9fb12d931b33fd8d202021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252703https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Introduction</h4>Mauritius introduced Acute respiratory infection (ARI) syndromic surveillance in 2007. The Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) and the World Health Organization Average Curve Method (WHO ACM) have been used widely in several countries to establish thresholds to determine the seasonality of acute respiratory infections. This study aimed to evaluate the appropriateness of these tools for ARI syndromic surveillance in Mauritius, where two or more waves are observed.<h4>Method</h4>The proportion of attendance due to acute respiratory infections was identified as the transmissibility indicator to describe seasonality using the Moving Epidemic Method and the WHO Average Curve Method. The proportion was obtained from weekly outpatient data between 2012 and 2018 collected from the sentinel acute respiratory infections surveillance. A cross-validation analysis was carried out. The resulting indicators of the goodness of fit model were used to assess the robustness of the seasonal/epidemic threshold of both the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method. Additionally, a comparative analysis examined the integrity of the thresholds without the year 2017.<h4>Result</h4>The cross-validation analysis demonstrated no statistically significant differences between the means scores of the indicators when comparing the two waves/seasons curves of WHO ACM and MEM. The only exception being that the Wilcoxon sign rank test strongly supported that the specificity mean score of the two waves/seasons curve for WHO ACM outweighed that of its corresponding wave model for the MEM (P = 0.002). The comparative analysis with 2017 data showed the value of the epidemic threshold remained the same regardless of the methods and the number of seasonal waves.<h4>Conclusion</h4>The two waves models of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method could be deployed for acute respiratory infection syndromic surveillance in Mauritius, considering that two or more activity peaks are observed in a season.Mohabeer TeeluckAtsushi SamuraPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0252703 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Mohabeer Teeluck Atsushi Samura Assessing the appropriateness of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method for the syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory infection in Mauritius.
description	<h4>Introduction</h4>Mauritius introduced Acute respiratory infection (ARI) syndromic surveillance in 2007. The Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) and the World Health Organization Average Curve Method (WHO ACM) have been used widely in several countries to establish thresholds to determine the seasonality of acute respiratory infections. This study aimed to evaluate the appropriateness of these tools for ARI syndromic surveillance in Mauritius, where two or more waves are observed.<h4>Method</h4>The proportion of attendance due to acute respiratory infections was identified as the transmissibility indicator to describe seasonality using the Moving Epidemic Method and the WHO Average Curve Method. The proportion was obtained from weekly outpatient data between 2012 and 2018 collected from the sentinel acute respiratory infections surveillance. A cross-validation analysis was carried out. The resulting indicators of the goodness of fit model were used to assess the robustness of the seasonal/epidemic threshold of both the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method. Additionally, a comparative analysis examined the integrity of the thresholds without the year 2017.<h4>Result</h4>The cross-validation analysis demonstrated no statistically significant differences between the means scores of the indicators when comparing the two waves/seasons curves of WHO ACM and MEM. The only exception being that the Wilcoxon sign rank test strongly supported that the specificity mean score of the two waves/seasons curve for WHO ACM outweighed that of its corresponding wave model for the MEM (P = 0.002). The comparative analysis with 2017 data showed the value of the epidemic threshold remained the same regardless of the methods and the number of seasonal waves.<h4>Conclusion</h4>The two waves models of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method could be deployed for acute respiratory infection syndromic surveillance in Mauritius, considering that two or more activity peaks are observed in a season.
format	article
author	Mohabeer Teeluck Atsushi Samura
author_facet	Mohabeer Teeluck Atsushi Samura
author_sort	Mohabeer Teeluck
title	Assessing the appropriateness of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method for the syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory infection in Mauritius.
title_short	Assessing the appropriateness of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method for the syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory infection in Mauritius.
title_full	Assessing the appropriateness of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method for the syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory infection in Mauritius.
title_fullStr	Assessing the appropriateness of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method for the syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory infection in Mauritius.
title_full_unstemmed	Assessing the appropriateness of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method for the syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory infection in Mauritius.
title_sort	assessing the appropriateness of the moving epidemic method and who average curve method for the syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory infection in mauritius.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/17554b797ea04a9fb12d931b33fd8d20
work_keys_str_mv	AT mohabeerteeluck assessingtheappropriatenessofthemovingepidemicmethodandwhoaveragecurvemethodforthesyndromicsurveillanceofacuterespiratoryinfectioninmauritius AT atsushisamura assessingtheappropriatenessofthemovingepidemicmethodandwhoaveragecurvemethodforthesyndromicsurveillanceofacuterespiratoryinfectioninmauritius
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Assessing the appropriateness of the Moving Epidemic Method and WHO Average Curve Method for the syndromic surveillance of acute respiratory infection in Mauritius.

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