Results on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.

The Presidential Election in Mexico of July 2012 has been the third time that PREP, Previous Electoral Results Program works. PREP gives voting outcomes based in electoral certificates of each polling station that arrive to capture centers. In previous ones, some statistical regularities had been ob...

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Autor principal:	H Hernández-Saldaña
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/17730c38d5034f6c97b8f932508d106d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:17730c38d5034f6c97b8f932508d106d2021-11-18T08:39:58ZResults on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0082584https://doaj.org/article/17730c38d5034f6c97b8f932508d106d2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24386103/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The Presidential Election in Mexico of July 2012 has been the third time that PREP, Previous Electoral Results Program works. PREP gives voting outcomes based in electoral certificates of each polling station that arrive to capture centers. In previous ones, some statistical regularities had been observed, three of them were selected to make predictions and were published in arXiv:1207.0078 [physics.soc-ph]. Using the database made public in July 2012, two of the predictions were completely fulfilled, while, the third one was measured and confirmed using the database obtained upon request to the electoral authorities. The first two predictions confirmed by actual measures are: (ii) The Partido Revolucionario Institucional, PRI, is a sprinter and has a better performance in polling stations arriving late to capture centers during the process. (iii) Distribution of vote of this party is well described by a smooth function named a Daisy model. A Gamma distribution, but compatible with a Daisy model, fits the distribution as well. The third prediction confirms that errare humanum est, since the error distributions of all the self-consistency variables appeared as a central power law with lateral lobes as in 2000 and 2006 electoral processes. The three measured regularities appeared no matter the political environment.H Hernández-SaldañaPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 12, p e82584 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q H Hernández-Saldaña Results on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.
description	The Presidential Election in Mexico of July 2012 has been the third time that PREP, Previous Electoral Results Program works. PREP gives voting outcomes based in electoral certificates of each polling station that arrive to capture centers. In previous ones, some statistical regularities had been observed, three of them were selected to make predictions and were published in arXiv:1207.0078 [physics.soc-ph]. Using the database made public in July 2012, two of the predictions were completely fulfilled, while, the third one was measured and confirmed using the database obtained upon request to the electoral authorities. The first two predictions confirmed by actual measures are: (ii) The Partido Revolucionario Institucional, PRI, is a sprinter and has a better performance in polling stations arriving late to capture centers during the process. (iii) Distribution of vote of this party is well described by a smooth function named a Daisy model. A Gamma distribution, but compatible with a Daisy model, fits the distribution as well. The third prediction confirms that errare humanum est, since the error distributions of all the self-consistency variables appeared as a central power law with lateral lobes as in 2000 and 2006 electoral processes. The three measured regularities appeared no matter the political environment.
format	article
author	H Hernández-Saldaña
author_facet	H Hernández-Saldaña
author_sort	H Hernández-Saldaña
title	Results on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.
title_short	Results on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.
title_full	Results on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.
title_fullStr	Results on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.
title_full_unstemmed	Results on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.
title_sort	results on three predictions for july 2012 federal elections in mexico based on past regularities.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/17730c38d5034f6c97b8f932508d106d
work_keys_str_mv	AT hhernandezsaldana resultsonthreepredictionsforjuly2012federalelectionsinmexicobasedonpastregularities
_version_	1718421484885508096

Results on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.

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