Data-Limited Stock Assessment for Fish Species Devoid of Catch Statistics: Case Studies for Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas

For many fish stocks, such as Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in China, size composition data are more accessible than catch data. Varied results can arise when different length-based stock assessment models are applied to these data, and fishery managers often need to reconcile conflicting esti...

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Autores principales:	Qingpeng Han, Xiujuan Shan, Xianshi Jin, Harry Gorfine, Tao Yang, Chengcheng Su
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	ensemble models length-based multimodel averaging population dynamics data-limited fisheries Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/184410a6bda3475d9127eee9e4725193
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:184410a6bda3475d9127eee9e4725193
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:184410a6bda3475d9127eee9e47251932021-11-30T19:04:15ZData-Limited Stock Assessment for Fish Species Devoid of Catch Statistics: Case Studies for Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas2296-774510.3389/fmars.2021.766499https://doaj.org/article/184410a6bda3475d9127eee9e47251932021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.766499/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745For many fish stocks, such as Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in China, size composition data are more accessible than catch data. Varied results can arise when different length-based stock assessment models are applied to these data, and fishery managers often need to reconcile conflicting estimates of population status. Superensemble modeling, a relatively recent innovation in fish stock assessments commonly used in other fields, may provide an effective solution to resolving uncertainties among the results from multiple length-based models. To verify potential for this approach to improve estimates of population status, we applied ensemble modeling to fit simulated data of P. argenteus and S. taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas using predictions from a length-based integrated mixed effects (LIME) and length-based spawning potential ratio (LB-SPR) models as covariables in a superensemble model developed in this study. All simulation modeling of P. argenteus and S. taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas was conducted using the operating model in the R package LIME. Initially, the LIME and LB-SPR performances were tested separately under three scenarios of fishing mortality and recruitment variability (“equilibrium scenario,” “endogenous scenario,” and “one-way base scenario”). Then, estimates of spawning potential ratio (SPR) were combined with the superensemble models (a linear model, a support vector machines, a random forest and a boosted regression tree). We trained our superensemble models with 80% of the simulated data and tested them with the remaining 20%. Our results showed that superensemble modeling substantially improved the estimates of SPR, with support vector machines performing the best at estimating population status: precision improved by 12.7% for S. taty and 8% for P. argenteus on average (namely, median absolute proportional error decreased by 0.127 and 0.08 on average) compared to the individual models. This finding has important implications for fisheries management in the context of species for which catch data are unavailable. Applying the size composition survey data, the results from support vector machines superensemble model suggested that neither S. taty nor P. argenteus in the Bohai Sea in 2019 are overfished, but the stock status of P. argenteus warrants vigilant monitoring.Qingpeng HanQingpeng HanXiujuan ShanXiujuan ShanXiujuan ShanXianshi JinXianshi JinXianshi JinHarry GorfineTao YangTao YangTao YangChengcheng SuFrontiers Media S.A.articleensemble modelslength-basedmultimodel averagingpopulation dynamicsdata-limited fisheriesScienceQGeneral. Including nature conservation, geographical distributionQH1-199.5ENFrontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	ensemble models length-based multimodel averaging population dynamics data-limited fisheries Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
spellingShingle	ensemble models length-based multimodel averaging population dynamics data-limited fisheries Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Qingpeng Han Qingpeng Han Xiujuan Shan Xiujuan Shan Xiujuan Shan Xianshi Jin Xianshi Jin Xianshi Jin Harry Gorfine Tao Yang Tao Yang Tao Yang Chengcheng Su Data-Limited Stock Assessment for Fish Species Devoid of Catch Statistics: Case Studies for Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas
description	For many fish stocks, such as Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in China, size composition data are more accessible than catch data. Varied results can arise when different length-based stock assessment models are applied to these data, and fishery managers often need to reconcile conflicting estimates of population status. Superensemble modeling, a relatively recent innovation in fish stock assessments commonly used in other fields, may provide an effective solution to resolving uncertainties among the results from multiple length-based models. To verify potential for this approach to improve estimates of population status, we applied ensemble modeling to fit simulated data of P. argenteus and S. taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas using predictions from a length-based integrated mixed effects (LIME) and length-based spawning potential ratio (LB-SPR) models as covariables in a superensemble model developed in this study. All simulation modeling of P. argenteus and S. taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas was conducted using the operating model in the R package LIME. Initially, the LIME and LB-SPR performances were tested separately under three scenarios of fishing mortality and recruitment variability (“equilibrium scenario,” “endogenous scenario,” and “one-way base scenario”). Then, estimates of spawning potential ratio (SPR) were combined with the superensemble models (a linear model, a support vector machines, a random forest and a boosted regression tree). We trained our superensemble models with 80% of the simulated data and tested them with the remaining 20%. Our results showed that superensemble modeling substantially improved the estimates of SPR, with support vector machines performing the best at estimating population status: precision improved by 12.7% for S. taty and 8% for P. argenteus on average (namely, median absolute proportional error decreased by 0.127 and 0.08 on average) compared to the individual models. This finding has important implications for fisheries management in the context of species for which catch data are unavailable. Applying the size composition survey data, the results from support vector machines superensemble model suggested that neither S. taty nor P. argenteus in the Bohai Sea in 2019 are overfished, but the stock status of P. argenteus warrants vigilant monitoring.
format	article
author	Qingpeng Han Qingpeng Han Xiujuan Shan Xiujuan Shan Xiujuan Shan Xianshi Jin Xianshi Jin Xianshi Jin Harry Gorfine Tao Yang Tao Yang Tao Yang Chengcheng Su
author_facet	Qingpeng Han Qingpeng Han Xiujuan Shan Xiujuan Shan Xiujuan Shan Xianshi Jin Xianshi Jin Xianshi Jin Harry Gorfine Tao Yang Tao Yang Tao Yang Chengcheng Su
author_sort	Qingpeng Han
title	Data-Limited Stock Assessment for Fish Species Devoid of Catch Statistics: Case Studies for Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas
title_short	Data-Limited Stock Assessment for Fish Species Devoid of Catch Statistics: Case Studies for Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas
title_full	Data-Limited Stock Assessment for Fish Species Devoid of Catch Statistics: Case Studies for Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas
title_fullStr	Data-Limited Stock Assessment for Fish Species Devoid of Catch Statistics: Case Studies for Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas
title_full_unstemmed	Data-Limited Stock Assessment for Fish Species Devoid of Catch Statistics: Case Studies for Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas
title_sort	data-limited stock assessment for fish species devoid of catch statistics: case studies for pampus argenteus and setipinna taty in the bohai and yellow seas
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/184410a6bda3475d9127eee9e4725193
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Data-Limited Stock Assessment for Fish Species Devoid of Catch Statistics: Case Studies for Pampus argenteus and Setipinna taty in the Bohai and Yellow Seas

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