Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau and effects of external forcing factors based on Generalized Pareto Distribution

The daily precipitation data of the years 1955–2017 from May to September were retrieved; then a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and maximum likelihood methods were adopted to understand trends and calculate the reappearance period of heavy precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The daily...

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Autores principales:	Jiajia Gao, Pengfei Ma, Jun Du, Xiaoqing Huang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	external forcing gpd strong precipitation tibetan plateau Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/18b65e9f9e9f4ebe9928a2e2ac64bee7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:18b65e9f9e9f4ebe9928a2e2ac64bee72021-11-06T07:12:48ZSpatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau and effects of external forcing factors based on Generalized Pareto Distribution1606-97491607-079810.2166/ws.2020.365https://doaj.org/article/18b65e9f9e9f4ebe9928a2e2ac64bee72021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttp://ws.iwaponline.com/content/21/3/1253https://doaj.org/toc/1606-9749https://doaj.org/toc/1607-0798The daily precipitation data of the years 1955–2017 from May to September were retrieved; then a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and maximum likelihood methods were adopted to understand trends and calculate the reappearance period of heavy precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The daily precipitation values at 22 stations in the TP were found to conform to the model, and theoretical and measured frequencies were consistent. According to the spatial distribution of the maximum precipitation value, the extreme values of Shigatse and Lhasa showed large fluctuations, and the probability of record-breaking precipitation events was low. In the western part of Nagqu, the probability of extreme precipitation was relatively low, and that of record-breaking precipitation was relatively high. The peak values of extreme precipitation in the flood season in the TP generally exhibited a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest, and the extreme value of the flood season that reappeared in the southeast region was approximately twice that of the northwest region. The maximum rainfall in most areas will exceed 20 mm in the next 5–10 years, and the maximum rainfall in Shigatse will reach 52.7 mm. After 15 years of recurrence in various regions, the peak rainfall in the flood season has become low. Most of the regions in the model have different responses to ENSO and Indian Ocean monsoon indices with external forcing factors. HIGHLIGHTS The Generalized Pareto Distribution method was first used in the TP.; The fitting results agree with the observation results.; The probability of breaking records was higher due to the lower probability of extreme precipitation.; The recurrence period of extreme precipitation gradually decreases from southeast to northwest in the TP.; ENSO and SST index for the Indian Ocean has a great influence on the extreme precipitation in the TP.;Jiajia GaoPengfei MaJun DuXiaoqing HuangIWA Publishingarticleexternal forcinggpdstrong precipitationtibetan plateauWater supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General)TC401-506ENWater Supply, Vol 21, Iss 3, Pp 1253-1262 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	external forcing gpd strong precipitation tibetan plateau Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506
spellingShingle	external forcing gpd strong precipitation tibetan plateau Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General) TC401-506 Jiajia Gao Pengfei Ma Jun Du Xiaoqing Huang Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau and effects of external forcing factors based on Generalized Pareto Distribution
description	The daily precipitation data of the years 1955–2017 from May to September were retrieved; then a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and maximum likelihood methods were adopted to understand trends and calculate the reappearance period of heavy precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The daily precipitation values at 22 stations in the TP were found to conform to the model, and theoretical and measured frequencies were consistent. According to the spatial distribution of the maximum precipitation value, the extreme values of Shigatse and Lhasa showed large fluctuations, and the probability of record-breaking precipitation events was low. In the western part of Nagqu, the probability of extreme precipitation was relatively low, and that of record-breaking precipitation was relatively high. The peak values of extreme precipitation in the flood season in the TP generally exhibited a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest, and the extreme value of the flood season that reappeared in the southeast region was approximately twice that of the northwest region. The maximum rainfall in most areas will exceed 20 mm in the next 5–10 years, and the maximum rainfall in Shigatse will reach 52.7 mm. After 15 years of recurrence in various regions, the peak rainfall in the flood season has become low. Most of the regions in the model have different responses to ENSO and Indian Ocean monsoon indices with external forcing factors. HIGHLIGHTS The Generalized Pareto Distribution method was first used in the TP.; The fitting results agree with the observation results.; The probability of breaking records was higher due to the lower probability of extreme precipitation.; The recurrence period of extreme precipitation gradually decreases from southeast to northwest in the TP.; ENSO and SST index for the Indian Ocean has a great influence on the extreme precipitation in the TP.;
format	article
author	Jiajia Gao Pengfei Ma Jun Du Xiaoqing Huang
author_facet	Jiajia Gao Pengfei Ma Jun Du Xiaoqing Huang
author_sort	Jiajia Gao
title	Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau and effects of external forcing factors based on Generalized Pareto Distribution
title_short	Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau and effects of external forcing factors based on Generalized Pareto Distribution
title_full	Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau and effects of external forcing factors based on Generalized Pareto Distribution
title_fullStr	Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau and effects of external forcing factors based on Generalized Pareto Distribution
title_full_unstemmed	Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau and effects of external forcing factors based on Generalized Pareto Distribution
title_sort	spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the tibetan plateau and effects of external forcing factors based on generalized pareto distribution
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/18b65e9f9e9f4ebe9928a2e2ac64bee7
work_keys_str_mv	AT jiajiagao spatialdistributionofextremeprecipitationinthetibetanplateauandeffectsofexternalforcingfactorsbasedongeneralizedparetodistribution AT pengfeima spatialdistributionofextremeprecipitationinthetibetanplateauandeffectsofexternalforcingfactorsbasedongeneralizedparetodistribution AT jundu spatialdistributionofextremeprecipitationinthetibetanplateauandeffectsofexternalforcingfactorsbasedongeneralizedparetodistribution AT xiaoqinghuang spatialdistributionofextremeprecipitationinthetibetanplateauandeffectsofexternalforcingfactorsbasedongeneralizedparetodistribution
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Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau and effects of external forcing factors based on Generalized Pareto Distribution

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