Assisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations

When assisted migration is used to address climate change, tree seedlings may have to be moved to substantially colder environments in anticipation of climate warming over their life span. Here, we evaluate frost risks for four economically important forest tree species of western Canada, Douglas-fi...

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Autores principales:	Zihaohan Sang, Andreas Hamann, Sally N. Aitken
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Frost risk Assisted migration Climate change Latitude transfer Altitude transfer Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/18e8c51286a64cb789731ce2b144e5a1
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:18e8c51286a64cb789731ce2b144e5a1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:18e8c51286a64cb789731ce2b144e5a12021-11-14T04:32:37ZAssisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations2212-096310.1016/j.crm.2021.100380https://doaj.org/article/18e8c51286a64cb789731ce2b144e5a12021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096321001091https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0963When assisted migration is used to address climate change, tree seedlings may have to be moved to substantially colder environments in anticipation of climate warming over their life span. Here, we evaluate frost risks for four economically important forest tree species of western Canada, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), interior spruce (Picea glauca, P. engelmannii, and their hybrids), and western larch (Larix occidentalis), when moved to adjacent northern and higher elevation seed zones that are cooler by approximately 2 °C. Changes to risks of damaging frosts among seed zones are evaluated during two 30-day periods, after dormancy release in spring and before onset of dormancy in fall, assuming a temperature-dominated day of bud break and a critical photoperiod-controlled onset of dormancy in fall. Based on daily interpolated climate data between 1980 and 2019, we find that late spring and early fall frost risks do not change significantly for transfers toward the north (<1 percentage point in most cases). In contrast, moving planting stock toward higher elevation generally leads to a substantial increase in exposure to unseasonal frosts (late spring frosts: 0.5% to 9.4%, early fall frosts: 0.8% to 17.1%). We conclude that transfers toward the north are preferable to transfers up in elevation in reforestation of these tree species in western Canada.Zihaohan SangAndreas HamannSally N. AitkenElsevierarticleFrost riskAssisted migrationClimate changeLatitude transferAltitude transferMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENClimate Risk Management, Vol 34, Iss , Pp 100380- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Frost risk Assisted migration Climate change Latitude transfer Altitude transfer Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Frost risk Assisted migration Climate change Latitude transfer Altitude transfer Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Zihaohan Sang Andreas Hamann Sally N. Aitken Assisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations
description	When assisted migration is used to address climate change, tree seedlings may have to be moved to substantially colder environments in anticipation of climate warming over their life span. Here, we evaluate frost risks for four economically important forest tree species of western Canada, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), interior spruce (Picea glauca, P. engelmannii, and their hybrids), and western larch (Larix occidentalis), when moved to adjacent northern and higher elevation seed zones that are cooler by approximately 2 °C. Changes to risks of damaging frosts among seed zones are evaluated during two 30-day periods, after dormancy release in spring and before onset of dormancy in fall, assuming a temperature-dominated day of bud break and a critical photoperiod-controlled onset of dormancy in fall. Based on daily interpolated climate data between 1980 and 2019, we find that late spring and early fall frost risks do not change significantly for transfers toward the north (<1 percentage point in most cases). In contrast, moving planting stock toward higher elevation generally leads to a substantial increase in exposure to unseasonal frosts (late spring frosts: 0.5% to 9.4%, early fall frosts: 0.8% to 17.1%). We conclude that transfers toward the north are preferable to transfers up in elevation in reforestation of these tree species in western Canada.
format	article
author	Zihaohan Sang Andreas Hamann Sally N. Aitken
author_facet	Zihaohan Sang Andreas Hamann Sally N. Aitken
author_sort	Zihaohan Sang
title	Assisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations
title_short	Assisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations
title_full	Assisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations
title_fullStr	Assisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations
title_full_unstemmed	Assisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations
title_sort	assisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/18e8c51286a64cb789731ce2b144e5a1
work_keys_str_mv	AT zihaohansang assistedmigrationpolewardratherthanupwardinelevationminimizesfrostrisksinplantations AT andreashamann assistedmigrationpolewardratherthanupwardinelevationminimizesfrostrisksinplantations AT sallynaitken assistedmigrationpolewardratherthanupwardinelevationminimizesfrostrisksinplantations
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Assisted migration poleward rather than upward in elevation minimizes frost risks in plantations

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