Pandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.

In this note we discuss the issues involved in attempting to model pandemic dynamics. More specifically, we show how it may be possible to make projections for the ongoing H1N1 pandemic as extrapolated from knowledge of seasonal influenza. We derive first-approximation parameter estimates for the SI...

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Autores principales:	Guy Katriel, Lewi Stone
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2010
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1928d9b72af74eb38d40cd1f6c89f5cb
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1928d9b72af74eb38d40cd1f6c89f5cb2021-11-25T06:25:27ZPandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0009565https://doaj.org/article/1928d9b72af74eb38d40cd1f6c89f5cb2010-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/20300617/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203In this note we discuss the issues involved in attempting to model pandemic dynamics. More specifically, we show how it may be possible to make projections for the ongoing H1N1 pandemic as extrapolated from knowledge of seasonal influenza. We derive first-approximation parameter estimates for the SIR model to describe seasonal influenza, and then explore the implications of the existing classical epidemiological theory for the case of a pandemic virus. In particular, we note the dramatic nonlinear increase in attack rate as a function of the percentage of susceptibles initially present in the population. This has severe consequences for the pandemic, given the general lack of immunity in the global population.Guy KatrielLewi StonePublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 5, Iss 3, p e9565 (2010)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Guy Katriel Lewi Stone Pandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.
description	In this note we discuss the issues involved in attempting to model pandemic dynamics. More specifically, we show how it may be possible to make projections for the ongoing H1N1 pandemic as extrapolated from knowledge of seasonal influenza. We derive first-approximation parameter estimates for the SIR model to describe seasonal influenza, and then explore the implications of the existing classical epidemiological theory for the case of a pandemic virus. In particular, we note the dramatic nonlinear increase in attack rate as a function of the percentage of susceptibles initially present in the population. This has severe consequences for the pandemic, given the general lack of immunity in the global population.
format	article
author	Guy Katriel Lewi Stone
author_facet	Guy Katriel Lewi Stone
author_sort	Guy Katriel
title	Pandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.
title_short	Pandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.
title_full	Pandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.
title_fullStr	Pandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.
title_full_unstemmed	Pandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.
title_sort	pandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2010
url	https://doaj.org/article/1928d9b72af74eb38d40cd1f6c89f5cb
work_keys_str_mv	AT guykatriel pandemicdynamicsandthebreakdownofherdimmunity AT lewistone pandemicdynamicsandthebreakdownofherdimmunity
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Pandemic dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity.

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