A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting

<p>The main purpose of this article is to emphasize the importance of clarifying the probabilistic framework adopted for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting. Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis seek to quantify the deep uncertainties that pervade the modeling of pre-, sin-,...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	W. Marzocchi, J. Selva, T. H. Jordan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1934ced471d04f4eb149b36ba32e6695
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:1934ced471d04f4eb149b36ba32e6695
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1934ced471d04f4eb149b36ba32e66952021-11-18T07:46:09ZA unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting10.5194/nhess-21-3509-20211561-86331684-9981https://doaj.org/article/1934ced471d04f4eb149b36ba32e66952021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/3509/2021/nhess-21-3509-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981<p>The main purpose of this article is to emphasize the importance of clarifying the probabilistic framework adopted for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting. Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis seek to quantify the deep uncertainties that pervade the modeling of pre-, sin-, and post-eruptive processes. These uncertainties can be differentiated into three fundamental types: (1) the natural variability of volcanic systems, usually represented as stochastic processes with parameterized distributions (<i>aleatory variability</i>); (2) the uncertainty in our knowledge of how volcanic systems operate and evolve, often represented as subjective probabilities based on expert opinion (<i>epistemic uncertainty</i>); and (3) the possibility that our forecasts are wrong owing to behaviors of volcanic processes about which we are completely ignorant and, hence, cannot quantify in terms of probabilities (<i>ontological error</i>). Here we put forward a probabilistic framework for hazard analysis recently proposed by Marzocchi and Jordan (2014), which unifies the treatment of all three types of uncertainty. Within this framework, an eruption forecasting or a volcanic hazard model is said to be complete only if it (a) fully characterizes the epistemic uncertainties in the model's representation of aleatory variability and (b) can be unconditionally tested (in principle) against observations to identify ontological errors. Unconditional testability, which is the key to model validation, hinges on an <i>experimental concept</i> that characterizes hazard events in terms of exchangeable data sequences with well-defined frequencies. We illustrate the application of this unified probabilistic framework by describing experimental concepts for the forecasting of tephra fall from Campi Flegrei. Eventually, this example may serve as a guide for the application of the same probabilistic framework to other natural hazards.</p>W. MarzocchiJ. SelvaT. H. JordanCopernicus PublicationsarticleEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Geography. Anthropology. RecreationGEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350GeologyQE1-996.5ENNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 21, Pp 3509-3517 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5
spellingShingle	Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 W. Marzocchi J. Selva T. H. Jordan A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
description	<p>The main purpose of this article is to emphasize the importance of clarifying the probabilistic framework adopted for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting. Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis seek to quantify the deep uncertainties that pervade the modeling of pre-, sin-, and post-eruptive processes. These uncertainties can be differentiated into three fundamental types: (1) the natural variability of volcanic systems, usually represented as stochastic processes with parameterized distributions (<i>aleatory variability</i>); (2) the uncertainty in our knowledge of how volcanic systems operate and evolve, often represented as subjective probabilities based on expert opinion (<i>epistemic uncertainty</i>); and (3) the possibility that our forecasts are wrong owing to behaviors of volcanic processes about which we are completely ignorant and, hence, cannot quantify in terms of probabilities (<i>ontological error</i>). Here we put forward a probabilistic framework for hazard analysis recently proposed by Marzocchi and Jordan (2014), which unifies the treatment of all three types of uncertainty. Within this framework, an eruption forecasting or a volcanic hazard model is said to be complete only if it (a) fully characterizes the epistemic uncertainties in the model's representation of aleatory variability and (b) can be unconditionally tested (in principle) against observations to identify ontological errors. Unconditional testability, which is the key to model validation, hinges on an <i>experimental concept</i> that characterizes hazard events in terms of exchangeable data sequences with well-defined frequencies. We illustrate the application of this unified probabilistic framework by describing experimental concepts for the forecasting of tephra fall from Campi Flegrei. Eventually, this example may serve as a guide for the application of the same probabilistic framework to other natural hazards.</p>
format	article
author	W. Marzocchi J. Selva T. H. Jordan
author_facet	W. Marzocchi J. Selva T. H. Jordan
author_sort	W. Marzocchi
title	A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
title_short	A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
title_full	A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
title_fullStr	A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
title_full_unstemmed	A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
title_sort	unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1934ced471d04f4eb149b36ba32e6695
work_keys_str_mv	AT wmarzocchi aunifiedprobabilisticframeworkforvolcanichazardanderuptionforecasting AT jselva aunifiedprobabilisticframeworkforvolcanichazardanderuptionforecasting AT thjordan aunifiedprobabilisticframeworkforvolcanichazardanderuptionforecasting AT wmarzocchi unifiedprobabilisticframeworkforvolcanichazardanderuptionforecasting AT jselva unifiedprobabilisticframeworkforvolcanichazardanderuptionforecasting AT thjordan unifiedprobabilisticframeworkforvolcanichazardanderuptionforecasting
_version_	1718422957054754816

A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting

Ejemplares similares