A metapopulation model to assess the capacity of spread of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST398 in humans.

The emergence of the livestock-associated clone of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) ST398 is a serious public health issue throughout Europe. In The Netherlands a stringent 'search-and-destroy' policy has been adopted, keeping low the level of MRSA prevalence. However, rep...

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Autores principales:	Thibaud Porphyre, Efstathios Stamatios Giotis, David Hugh Lloyd, Katharina Dorothea Clementine Stärk
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/19d2d14dd9694f2fa2d96a27f3679bb6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:19d2d14dd9694f2fa2d96a27f3679bb62021-11-18T08:11:13ZA metapopulation model to assess the capacity of spread of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST398 in humans.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0047504https://doaj.org/article/19d2d14dd9694f2fa2d96a27f3679bb62012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23112817/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The emergence of the livestock-associated clone of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) ST398 is a serious public health issue throughout Europe. In The Netherlands a stringent 'search-and-destroy' policy has been adopted, keeping low the level of MRSA prevalence. However, reports have recently emerged of transmission events between humans showing no links to livestock, contradicting belief that MRSA ST398 is poorly transmissible in humans. The question regarding the transmissibility of MRSA ST398 in humans therefore remains of great interest. Here, we investigated the capacity of MRSA ST398 to spread into an entirely susceptible human population subject to the effect of a single MRSA-positive commercial pig farm. Using a stochastic, discrete-time metapopulation model, we explored the effect of varying both the probability of persistent carriage and that of acquiring MRSA due to contact with pigs on the transmission dynamics of MRSA ST398 in humans. In particular, we assessed the value and key determinants of the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) for MRSA ST398. Simulations showed that the presence of recurrent exposures with pigs in risky populations allows MRSA ST398 to persist in the metapopulation and transmission events to occur beyond the farming community, even when the probability of persistent carriage is low. We further showed that persistent carriage should occur in less than 10% of the time for MRSA ST398 to conserve epidemiological characteristics similar to what has been previously reported. These results indicate that implementing control policy that only targets human carriers may not be sufficient to control MRSA ST398 in the community if it remains in pigs. We argue that farm-level control measures should be implemented if an eradication programme is to be considered.Thibaud PorphyreEfstathios Stamatios GiotisDavid Hugh LloydKatharina Dorothea Clementine StärkPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 10, p e47504 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Thibaud Porphyre Efstathios Stamatios Giotis David Hugh Lloyd Katharina Dorothea Clementine Stärk A metapopulation model to assess the capacity of spread of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST398 in humans.
description	The emergence of the livestock-associated clone of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) ST398 is a serious public health issue throughout Europe. In The Netherlands a stringent 'search-and-destroy' policy has been adopted, keeping low the level of MRSA prevalence. However, reports have recently emerged of transmission events between humans showing no links to livestock, contradicting belief that MRSA ST398 is poorly transmissible in humans. The question regarding the transmissibility of MRSA ST398 in humans therefore remains of great interest. Here, we investigated the capacity of MRSA ST398 to spread into an entirely susceptible human population subject to the effect of a single MRSA-positive commercial pig farm. Using a stochastic, discrete-time metapopulation model, we explored the effect of varying both the probability of persistent carriage and that of acquiring MRSA due to contact with pigs on the transmission dynamics of MRSA ST398 in humans. In particular, we assessed the value and key determinants of the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) for MRSA ST398. Simulations showed that the presence of recurrent exposures with pigs in risky populations allows MRSA ST398 to persist in the metapopulation and transmission events to occur beyond the farming community, even when the probability of persistent carriage is low. We further showed that persistent carriage should occur in less than 10% of the time for MRSA ST398 to conserve epidemiological characteristics similar to what has been previously reported. These results indicate that implementing control policy that only targets human carriers may not be sufficient to control MRSA ST398 in the community if it remains in pigs. We argue that farm-level control measures should be implemented if an eradication programme is to be considered.
format	article
author	Thibaud Porphyre Efstathios Stamatios Giotis David Hugh Lloyd Katharina Dorothea Clementine Stärk
author_facet	Thibaud Porphyre Efstathios Stamatios Giotis David Hugh Lloyd Katharina Dorothea Clementine Stärk
author_sort	Thibaud Porphyre
title	A metapopulation model to assess the capacity of spread of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST398 in humans.
title_short	A metapopulation model to assess the capacity of spread of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST398 in humans.
title_full	A metapopulation model to assess the capacity of spread of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST398 in humans.
title_fullStr	A metapopulation model to assess the capacity of spread of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST398 in humans.
title_full_unstemmed	A metapopulation model to assess the capacity of spread of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST398 in humans.
title_sort	metapopulation model to assess the capacity of spread of meticillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus st398 in humans.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/19d2d14dd9694f2fa2d96a27f3679bb6
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A metapopulation model to assess the capacity of spread of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST398 in humans.

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