Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction

Abstract Where and when alien organisms are successfully introduced are central questions to elucidate biotic and abiotic conditions favorable to the introduction, establishment and spread of invasive species. We propose a modelling framework to analyze multiple introductions by several invasive gen...

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Autores principales:	L. Roques, C. Desbiez, K. Berthier, S. Soubeyrand, E. Walker, E. K. Klein, J. Garnier, B. Moury, J. Papaïx
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1a182c990e0042afafb8db1e6747ce5c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1a182c990e0042afafb8db1e6747ce5c2021-12-02T14:23:24ZEmerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction10.1038/s41598-021-86314-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/1a182c990e0042afafb8db1e6747ce5c2021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86314-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Where and when alien organisms are successfully introduced are central questions to elucidate biotic and abiotic conditions favorable to the introduction, establishment and spread of invasive species. We propose a modelling framework to analyze multiple introductions by several invasive genotypes or genetic variants, in competition with a resident population, when observations provide knowledge on the relative proportions of each variant at some dates and places. This framework is based on a mechanistic-statistical model coupling a reaction–diffusion model with a probabilistic observation model. We apply it to a spatio-temporal dataset reporting the relative proportions of five genetic variants of watermelon mosaic virus (WMV, genus Potyvirus, family Potyviridae) in infections of commercial cucurbit fields. Despite the parsimonious nature of the model, it succeeds in fitting the data well and provides an estimation of the dates and places of successful introduction of each emerging variant as well as a reconstruction of the dynamics of each variant since its introduction.L. RoquesC. DesbiezK. BerthierS. SoubeyrandE. WalkerE. K. KleinJ. GarnierB. MouryJ. PapaïxNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q L. Roques C. Desbiez K. Berthier S. Soubeyrand E. Walker E. K. Klein J. Garnier B. Moury J. Papaïx Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction
description	Abstract Where and when alien organisms are successfully introduced are central questions to elucidate biotic and abiotic conditions favorable to the introduction, establishment and spread of invasive species. We propose a modelling framework to analyze multiple introductions by several invasive genotypes or genetic variants, in competition with a resident population, when observations provide knowledge on the relative proportions of each variant at some dates and places. This framework is based on a mechanistic-statistical model coupling a reaction–diffusion model with a probabilistic observation model. We apply it to a spatio-temporal dataset reporting the relative proportions of five genetic variants of watermelon mosaic virus (WMV, genus Potyvirus, family Potyviridae) in infections of commercial cucurbit fields. Despite the parsimonious nature of the model, it succeeds in fitting the data well and provides an estimation of the dates and places of successful introduction of each emerging variant as well as a reconstruction of the dynamics of each variant since its introduction.
format	article
author	L. Roques C. Desbiez K. Berthier S. Soubeyrand E. Walker E. K. Klein J. Garnier B. Moury J. Papaïx
author_facet	L. Roques C. Desbiez K. Berthier S. Soubeyrand E. Walker E. K. Klein J. Garnier B. Moury J. Papaïx
author_sort	L. Roques
title	Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction
title_short	Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction
title_full	Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction
title_fullStr	Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction
title_full_unstemmed	Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction
title_sort	emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in southeastern france: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1a182c990e0042afafb8db1e6747ce5c
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Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction

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