On the evolution of income elasticities of imports and Thirlwall’s law: a Bayesian analysis for latin america (1961 – 2018)

This paper analyzes the evolution of income elasticities of imports and verifies the validity original Thirlwall’s Law for eight Latin American countries overs the period 1961-2018. Given the econometric issues inherent to classical time-varying parameter regressions, a Bayesian estimation procedur...

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Autores principales:	Diego Ferreira, Andreza Aparecida Palma, Marcelo Luiz Curado
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN PT
Publicado:	Universidade de São Paulo 2021
Materias:	Import elasticity Thirlwall's law Balance-of-payments-constrained growth Latin america Bayesian estimation Time-varying parameter Economics as a science HB71-74
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1a78c847f2af46f99cad261fbab44c80
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:1a78c847f2af46f99cad261fbab44c80
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1a78c847f2af46f99cad261fbab44c802021-11-24T14:20:11ZOn the evolution of income elasticities of imports and Thirlwall’s law: a Bayesian analysis for latin america (1961 – 2018)10.1590/0101-41615132dam0101-41611980-5357https://doaj.org/article/1a78c847f2af46f99cad261fbab44c802021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.revistas.usp.br/ee/article/view/164079https://doaj.org/toc/0101-4161https://doaj.org/toc/1980-5357 This paper analyzes the evolution of income elasticities of imports and verifies the validity original Thirlwall’s Law for eight Latin American countries overs the period 1961-2018. Given the econometric issues inherent to classical time-varying parameter regressions, a Bayesian estimation procedure is implemented in order to provide more robust parameter estimates. A stochastic volatility specification is also included to take into account the potential presence of conditional heteroskedasticity. While some Latin American economies showed a rather stable behavior, the income elasticities of imports for Brazil, Colombia and Mexico presented an upward trend from 1961 to 2018. Regarding the validity of original Thirlwall’s Law, there were evidences of the balance-of-payments (BOP) posing a restriction to the growth performance in all of the eight selected Latin American countries. Diego FerreiraAndreza Aparecida PalmaMarcelo Luiz CuradoUniversidade de São PauloarticleImport elasticityThirlwall's lawBalance-of-payments-constrained growthLatin americaBayesian estimationTime-varying parameterEconomics as a scienceHB71-74ENPTEstudos Econômicos, Vol 51, Iss 3 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN PT
topic	Import elasticity Thirlwall's law Balance-of-payments-constrained growth Latin america Bayesian estimation Time-varying parameter Economics as a science HB71-74
spellingShingle	Import elasticity Thirlwall's law Balance-of-payments-constrained growth Latin america Bayesian estimation Time-varying parameter Economics as a science HB71-74 Diego Ferreira Andreza Aparecida Palma Marcelo Luiz Curado On the evolution of income elasticities of imports and Thirlwall’s law: a Bayesian analysis for latin america (1961 – 2018)
description	This paper analyzes the evolution of income elasticities of imports and verifies the validity original Thirlwall’s Law for eight Latin American countries overs the period 1961-2018. Given the econometric issues inherent to classical time-varying parameter regressions, a Bayesian estimation procedure is implemented in order to provide more robust parameter estimates. A stochastic volatility specification is also included to take into account the potential presence of conditional heteroskedasticity. While some Latin American economies showed a rather stable behavior, the income elasticities of imports for Brazil, Colombia and Mexico presented an upward trend from 1961 to 2018. Regarding the validity of original Thirlwall’s Law, there were evidences of the balance-of-payments (BOP) posing a restriction to the growth performance in all of the eight selected Latin American countries.
format	article
author	Diego Ferreira Andreza Aparecida Palma Marcelo Luiz Curado
author_facet	Diego Ferreira Andreza Aparecida Palma Marcelo Luiz Curado
author_sort	Diego Ferreira
title	On the evolution of income elasticities of imports and Thirlwall’s law: a Bayesian analysis for latin america (1961 – 2018)
title_short	On the evolution of income elasticities of imports and Thirlwall’s law: a Bayesian analysis for latin america (1961 – 2018)
title_full	On the evolution of income elasticities of imports and Thirlwall’s law: a Bayesian analysis for latin america (1961 – 2018)
title_fullStr	On the evolution of income elasticities of imports and Thirlwall’s law: a Bayesian analysis for latin america (1961 – 2018)
title_full_unstemmed	On the evolution of income elasticities of imports and Thirlwall’s law: a Bayesian analysis for latin america (1961 – 2018)
title_sort	on the evolution of income elasticities of imports and thirlwall’s law: a bayesian analysis for latin america (1961 – 2018)
publisher	Universidade de São Paulo
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1a78c847f2af46f99cad261fbab44c80
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On the evolution of income elasticities of imports and Thirlwall’s law: a Bayesian analysis for latin america (1961 – 2018)

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