Global ensemble of temperatures over 1850–2018: quantification of uncertainties in observations, coverage, and spatial modeling (GETQUOCS)

<p>Instrumental global temperature records are derived from the network of in situ measurements of land and sea surface temperatures. This observational evidence is seen as being fundamental to climate science. Therefore, the accuracy of these measurements is of prime importance for the analys...

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Autores principales:	M. Ilyas, D. Nychka, C. Brierley, S. Guillas
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Environmental engineering TA170-171 Earthwork. Foundations TA715-787
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1b2f4e2712ba47aebcd97c25a7678d5f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1b2f4e2712ba47aebcd97c25a7678d5f2021-11-12T05:19:10ZGlobal ensemble of temperatures over 1850–2018: quantification of uncertainties in observations, coverage, and spatial modeling (GETQUOCS)10.5194/amt-14-7103-20211867-13811867-8548https://doaj.org/article/1b2f4e2712ba47aebcd97c25a7678d5f2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://amt.copernicus.org/articles/14/7103/2021/amt-14-7103-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1867-1381https://doaj.org/toc/1867-8548<p>Instrumental global temperature records are derived from the network of in situ measurements of land and sea surface temperatures. This observational evidence is seen as being fundamental to climate science. Therefore, the accuracy of these measurements is of prime importance for the analysis of temperature variability. There are spatial gaps in the distribution of instrumental temperature measurements across the globe. This lack of spatial coverage introduces coverage error. An approximate Bayesian computation based multi-resolution lattice kriging is developed and used to quantify the coverage errors through the variance of the spatial process at multiple spatial scales. It critically accounts for the uncertainties in the parameters of this advanced spatial statistics model itself, thereby providing, for the first time, a full description of both the spatial coverage uncertainties along with the uncertainties in the modeling of these spatial gaps. These coverage errors are combined with the existing estimates of uncertainties due to observational issues at each station location. It results in an ensemble of 100 000 monthly temperatures fields over the entire globe that samples the combination of coverage, parametric and observational uncertainties from 1850 to 2018 over a <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">5</mn><msup><mi/><mo>∘</mo></msup><mo>×</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">5</mn><msup><mi/><mo>∘</mo></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="34pt" height="11pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="4650d9d0398300a0901bbede1e68549f"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="amt-14-7103-2021-ie00001.svg" width="34pt" height="11pt" src="amt-14-7103-2021-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> grid.</p>M. IlyasM. IlyasD. NychkaC. BrierleyS. GuillasCopernicus PublicationsarticleEnvironmental engineeringTA170-171Earthwork. FoundationsTA715-787ENAtmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol 14, Pp 7103-7121 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental engineering TA170-171 Earthwork. Foundations TA715-787
spellingShingle	Environmental engineering TA170-171 Earthwork. Foundations TA715-787 M. Ilyas M. Ilyas D. Nychka C. Brierley S. Guillas Global ensemble of temperatures over 1850–2018: quantification of uncertainties in observations, coverage, and spatial modeling (GETQUOCS)
description	<p>Instrumental global temperature records are derived from the network of in situ measurements of land and sea surface temperatures. This observational evidence is seen as being fundamental to climate science. Therefore, the accuracy of these measurements is of prime importance for the analysis of temperature variability. There are spatial gaps in the distribution of instrumental temperature measurements across the globe. This lack of spatial coverage introduces coverage error. An approximate Bayesian computation based multi-resolution lattice kriging is developed and used to quantify the coverage errors through the variance of the spatial process at multiple spatial scales. It critically accounts for the uncertainties in the parameters of this advanced spatial statistics model itself, thereby providing, for the first time, a full description of both the spatial coverage uncertainties along with the uncertainties in the modeling of these spatial gaps. These coverage errors are combined with the existing estimates of uncertainties due to observational issues at each station location. It results in an ensemble of 100 000 monthly temperatures fields over the entire globe that samples the combination of coverage, parametric and observational uncertainties from 1850 to 2018 over a <span class="inline-formula"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow><mn mathvariant="normal">5</mn><msup><mi/><mo>∘</mo></msup><mo>×</mo><mn mathvariant="normal">5</mn><msup><mi/><mo>∘</mo></msup></mrow></math><span><svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="34pt" height="11pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="4650d9d0398300a0901bbede1e68549f"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="amt-14-7103-2021-ie00001.svg" width="34pt" height="11pt" src="amt-14-7103-2021-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg></span></span> grid.</p>
format	article
author	M. Ilyas M. Ilyas D. Nychka C. Brierley S. Guillas
author_facet	M. Ilyas M. Ilyas D. Nychka C. Brierley S. Guillas
author_sort	M. Ilyas
title	Global ensemble of temperatures over 1850–2018: quantification of uncertainties in observations, coverage, and spatial modeling (GETQUOCS)
title_short	Global ensemble of temperatures over 1850–2018: quantification of uncertainties in observations, coverage, and spatial modeling (GETQUOCS)
title_full	Global ensemble of temperatures over 1850–2018: quantification of uncertainties in observations, coverage, and spatial modeling (GETQUOCS)
title_fullStr	Global ensemble of temperatures over 1850–2018: quantification of uncertainties in observations, coverage, and spatial modeling (GETQUOCS)
title_full_unstemmed	Global ensemble of temperatures over 1850–2018: quantification of uncertainties in observations, coverage, and spatial modeling (GETQUOCS)
title_sort	global ensemble of temperatures over 1850–2018: quantification of uncertainties in observations, coverage, and spatial modeling (getquocs)
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1b2f4e2712ba47aebcd97c25a7678d5f
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Global ensemble of temperatures over 1850–2018: quantification of uncertainties in observations, coverage, and spatial modeling (GETQUOCS)

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