Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland

Abstract Much research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime r...

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Autores principales:	David Buil-Gil, Yongyu Zeng, Steven Kemp
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Science (General) Q1-390 Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology HV1-9960
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1b36d8e5c5164cffb5837ef7ab5408a6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1b36d8e5c5164cffb5837ef7ab5408a62021-11-14T12:05:50ZOffline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland10.1186/s40163-021-00162-92193-7680https://doaj.org/article/1b36d8e5c5164cffb5837ef7ab5408a62021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-021-00162-9https://doaj.org/toc/2193-7680Abstract Much research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.David Buil-GilYongyu ZengSteven KempBMCarticleScience (General)Q1-390Social pathology. Social and public welfare. CriminologyHV1-9960ENCrime Science, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Science (General) Q1-390 Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology HV1-9960
spellingShingle	Science (General) Q1-390 Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology HV1-9960 David Buil-Gil Yongyu Zeng Steven Kemp Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland
description	Abstract Much research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.
format	article
author	David Buil-Gil Yongyu Zeng Steven Kemp
author_facet	David Buil-Gil Yongyu Zeng Steven Kemp
author_sort	David Buil-Gil
title	Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland
title_short	Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland
title_full	Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland
title_fullStr	Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland
title_full_unstemmed	Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland
title_sort	offline crime bounces back to pre-covid levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in northern ireland
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1b36d8e5c5164cffb5837ef7ab5408a6
work_keys_str_mv	AT davidbuilgil offlinecrimebouncesbacktoprecovidlevelscyberstayshighinterruptedtimeseriesanalysisinnorthernireland AT yongyuzeng offlinecrimebouncesbacktoprecovidlevelscyberstayshighinterruptedtimeseriesanalysisinnorthernireland AT stevenkemp offlinecrimebouncesbacktoprecovidlevelscyberstayshighinterruptedtimeseriesanalysisinnorthernireland
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Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland

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