Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe

Monitoring urban area expansion through multispectral remotely sensed data and other geomatics techniques is fundamental for sustainable urban planning. Forecasting of future land use land cover (LULC) change for the years 2034 and 2050 was performed using the Cellular Automata Markov model for the...

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Autores principales:	Andrew K. Marondedze, Brigitta Schütt
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	land use land cover (LULC) Cellular Automata Markov model representative concentration pathways climate scenarios Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1b5db6a5a16e44e18b8b8548b7bf34e3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1b5db6a5a16e44e18b8b8548b7bf34e32021-11-11T18:54:40ZPredicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe10.3390/rs132143602072-4292https://doaj.org/article/1b5db6a5a16e44e18b8b8548b7bf34e32021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/21/4360https://doaj.org/toc/2072-4292Monitoring urban area expansion through multispectral remotely sensed data and other geomatics techniques is fundamental for sustainable urban planning. Forecasting of future land use land cover (LULC) change for the years 2034 and 2050 was performed using the Cellular Automata Markov model for the current fast-growing Epworth district of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe. The stochastic CA–Markov modelling procedure validation yielded kappa statistics above 80%, ascertaining good agreement. The spatial distribution of the LULC classes CBD/Industrial area, water and irrigated croplands as projected for 2034 and 2050 show slight notable changes. For projected scenarios in 2034 and 2050, low–medium-density residential areas are predicted to increase from 11.1 km<sup>2</sup> to 12.3 km<sup>2</sup> between 2018 and 2050. Similarly, high-density residential areas are predicted to increase from 18.6 km<sup>2</sup> to 22.4 km<sup>2</sup> between 2018 and 2050. Assessment of the effects of future climate change on potential soil erosion risk for Epworth district were undertaken by applying the representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate scenarios, and model ensemble averages from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were used to derive the rainfall erosivity factor for the RUSLE model. Average soil loss rates for both climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were predicted to be high in 2034 due to the large spatial area extent of croplands and disturbed green spaces exposed to soil erosion processes, therefore increasing potential soil erosion risk, with RCP4.5 having more impact than RCP8.5 due to a higher applied rainfall erosivity. For 2050, the predicted wide area average soil loss rates declined for both climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, following the predicted decline in rainfall erosivity and vulnerable areas that are erodible. Overall, high potential soil erosion risk was predicted along the flanks of the drainage network for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in 2050.Andrew K. MarondedzeBrigitta SchüttMDPI AGarticleland use land cover (LULC)Cellular Automata Markov modelrepresentative concentration pathwaysclimate scenariosScienceQENRemote Sensing, Vol 13, Iss 4360, p 4360 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	land use land cover (LULC) Cellular Automata Markov model representative concentration pathways climate scenarios Science Q
spellingShingle	land use land cover (LULC) Cellular Automata Markov model representative concentration pathways climate scenarios Science Q Andrew K. Marondedze Brigitta Schütt Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe
description	Monitoring urban area expansion through multispectral remotely sensed data and other geomatics techniques is fundamental for sustainable urban planning. Forecasting of future land use land cover (LULC) change for the years 2034 and 2050 was performed using the Cellular Automata Markov model for the current fast-growing Epworth district of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe. The stochastic CA–Markov modelling procedure validation yielded kappa statistics above 80%, ascertaining good agreement. The spatial distribution of the LULC classes CBD/Industrial area, water and irrigated croplands as projected for 2034 and 2050 show slight notable changes. For projected scenarios in 2034 and 2050, low–medium-density residential areas are predicted to increase from 11.1 km<sup>2</sup> to 12.3 km<sup>2</sup> between 2018 and 2050. Similarly, high-density residential areas are predicted to increase from 18.6 km<sup>2</sup> to 22.4 km<sup>2</sup> between 2018 and 2050. Assessment of the effects of future climate change on potential soil erosion risk for Epworth district were undertaken by applying the representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate scenarios, and model ensemble averages from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were used to derive the rainfall erosivity factor for the RUSLE model. Average soil loss rates for both climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were predicted to be high in 2034 due to the large spatial area extent of croplands and disturbed green spaces exposed to soil erosion processes, therefore increasing potential soil erosion risk, with RCP4.5 having more impact than RCP8.5 due to a higher applied rainfall erosivity. For 2050, the predicted wide area average soil loss rates declined for both climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, following the predicted decline in rainfall erosivity and vulnerable areas that are erodible. Overall, high potential soil erosion risk was predicted along the flanks of the drainage network for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in 2050.
format	article
author	Andrew K. Marondedze Brigitta Schütt
author_facet	Andrew K. Marondedze Brigitta Schütt
author_sort	Andrew K. Marondedze
title	Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe
title_short	Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe
title_full	Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe
title_fullStr	Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe
title_sort	predicting the impact of future land use and climate change on potential soil erosion risk in an urban district of the harare metropolitan province, zimbabwe
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1b5db6a5a16e44e18b8b8548b7bf34e3
work_keys_str_mv	AT andrewkmarondedze predictingtheimpactoffuturelanduseandclimatechangeonpotentialsoilerosionriskinanurbandistrictofthehararemetropolitanprovincezimbabwe AT brigittaschutt predictingtheimpactoffuturelanduseandclimatechangeonpotentialsoilerosionriskinanurbandistrictofthehararemetropolitanprovincezimbabwe
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Predicting the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Potential Soil Erosion Risk in an Urban District of the Harare Metropolitan Province, Zimbabwe

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