Transient and Quasi‐Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming

Abstract Recent climate change is characterized by rapid global warming, but the goal of the Paris Agreement is to achieve a stable climate where global temperatures remain well below 2°C above pre‐industrial levels. Inferences about conditions at or below 2°C are usually made based on transient cli...

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Autores principales:	Andrew D. King, Alexander R. Borowiak, Josephine R. Brown, David J. Frame, Luke J. Harrington, Seung‐Ki Min, Angeline Pendergrass, Maria Rugenstein, J. M. Kale Sniderman, Dáithí A. Stone
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2021
Materias:	Paris agreement climate change CMIP6 rapid warming stabilized climate Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1c13736304dc4c3da538222eb5827db7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1c13736304dc4c3da538222eb5827db72021-11-23T18:30:30ZTransient and Quasi‐Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming2328-427710.1029/2021EF002274https://doaj.org/article/1c13736304dc4c3da538222eb5827db72021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002274https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277Abstract Recent climate change is characterized by rapid global warming, but the goal of the Paris Agreement is to achieve a stable climate where global temperatures remain well below 2°C above pre‐industrial levels. Inferences about conditions at or below 2°C are usually made based on transient climate projections. To better understand climate change impacts on natural and human systems under the Paris Agreement, we must understand how a stable climate may differ from transient conditions at the same warming level. Here we examine differences between transient and quasi‐equilibrium climates using a statistical framework applied to greenhouse gas‐only model simulations. This allows us to infer climate change patterns at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming in both transient and quasi‐equilibrium climate states. We find substantial local differences between seasonal‐average temperatures dependent on the rate of global warming, with mid‐latitude land regions in boreal summer considerably warmer in a transient climate than a quasi‐equilibrium state at both 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. In a rapidly warming world, such locations may experience a temporary emergence of a local climate change signal that weakens if the global climate stabilizes and the Paris Agreement goals are met. Our research demonstrates that the rate of global warming must be considered in regional projections.Andrew D. KingAlexander R. BorowiakJosephine R. BrownDavid J. FrameLuke J. HarringtonSeung‐Ki MinAngeline PendergrassMaria RugensteinJ. M. Kale SnidermanDáithí A. StoneAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)articleParis agreementclimate changeCMIP6rapid warmingstabilized climateEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350EcologyQH540-549.5ENEarth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 11, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Paris agreement climate change CMIP6 rapid warming stabilized climate Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Paris agreement climate change CMIP6 rapid warming stabilized climate Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Andrew D. King Alexander R. Borowiak Josephine R. Brown David J. Frame Luke J. Harrington Seung‐Ki Min Angeline Pendergrass Maria Rugenstein J. M. Kale Sniderman Dáithí A. Stone Transient and Quasi‐Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming
description	Abstract Recent climate change is characterized by rapid global warming, but the goal of the Paris Agreement is to achieve a stable climate where global temperatures remain well below 2°C above pre‐industrial levels. Inferences about conditions at or below 2°C are usually made based on transient climate projections. To better understand climate change impacts on natural and human systems under the Paris Agreement, we must understand how a stable climate may differ from transient conditions at the same warming level. Here we examine differences between transient and quasi‐equilibrium climates using a statistical framework applied to greenhouse gas‐only model simulations. This allows us to infer climate change patterns at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming in both transient and quasi‐equilibrium climate states. We find substantial local differences between seasonal‐average temperatures dependent on the rate of global warming, with mid‐latitude land regions in boreal summer considerably warmer in a transient climate than a quasi‐equilibrium state at both 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. In a rapidly warming world, such locations may experience a temporary emergence of a local climate change signal that weakens if the global climate stabilizes and the Paris Agreement goals are met. Our research demonstrates that the rate of global warming must be considered in regional projections.
format	article
author	Andrew D. King Alexander R. Borowiak Josephine R. Brown David J. Frame Luke J. Harrington Seung‐Ki Min Angeline Pendergrass Maria Rugenstein J. M. Kale Sniderman Dáithí A. Stone
author_facet	Andrew D. King Alexander R. Borowiak Josephine R. Brown David J. Frame Luke J. Harrington Seung‐Ki Min Angeline Pendergrass Maria Rugenstein J. M. Kale Sniderman Dáithí A. Stone
author_sort	Andrew D. King
title	Transient and Quasi‐Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming
title_short	Transient and Quasi‐Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming
title_full	Transient and Quasi‐Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming
title_fullStr	Transient and Quasi‐Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming
title_full_unstemmed	Transient and Quasi‐Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming
title_sort	transient and quasi‐equilibrium climate states at 1.5°c and 2°c global warming
publisher	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1c13736304dc4c3da538222eb5827db7
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Transient and Quasi‐Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming

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