The Secular Stagnation Hypothes is and the Future of Europe’s Advanced Economies

The secular stagnation hypothesis originated in the late 1930s when Alvin Hansen proposed that the American economy will experience a prolonged depression because of the slowdown in demographics. Widely discussed in the aftermath of the Great Depression, interest in this hypothesis has waned as the...

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Autor principal:	Artur F. Tomeczek
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN PL
Publicado:	Ksiegarnia Akademicka Publishing 2020
Materias:	secular stagnation natural rate of interest advanced economies central banking zero lower bound Law K Political science J
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1c44ce378cca45bfae33477aeb3f433b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1c44ce378cca45bfae33477aeb3f433b2021-11-27T13:11:57ZThe Secular Stagnation Hypothes is and the Future of Europe’s Advanced Economies10.12797/Politeja.17.2020.66.031733-67162391-6737https://doaj.org/article/1c44ce378cca45bfae33477aeb3f433b2020-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://journals.akademicka.pl/politeja/article/view/1412https://doaj.org/toc/1733-6716https://doaj.org/toc/2391-6737 The secular stagnation hypothesis originated in the late 1930s when Alvin Hansen proposed that the American economy will experience a prolonged depression because of the slowdown in demographics. Widely discussed in the aftermath of the Great Depression, interest in this hypothesis has waned as the world entered a period of rapid economic growth after World War II. In the years following the Great Recession, the secular stagnation hypothesis has once again come to the forefront of economic research when Lawrence Summers introduced the so‑called “new secular stagnation hypothesis.” This article aims to establish whether the secular stagnation hypothesis is relevant to the future of Europe’s advanced economies. Two main symptoms of secular stagnation (demographic slowdown and decline in the natural rate of interest) are especially noticeable in Western Europe. The article has three parts. Part one contains a theoretical overview of the secular stagnation hypothesis. Part two comprises the empirical analysis of the macroeconomic situation in selected advanced economies in Europe and a short review of findings in the literature on the natural rate of interest. Part three identifies possible future problems and provides brief policy recommendations. I conclude that Italy, and to a lesser degree, Spain and Germany, are the countries most vulnerable to secular stagnation. Artur F. TomeczekKsiegarnia Akademicka Publishingarticlesecular stagnationnatural rate of interestadvanced economiescentral bankingzero lower boundLawKPolitical scienceJENPLPoliteja, Vol 17, Iss 3(66) (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN PL
topic	secular stagnation natural rate of interest advanced economies central banking zero lower bound Law K Political science J
spellingShingle	secular stagnation natural rate of interest advanced economies central banking zero lower bound Law K Political science J Artur F. Tomeczek The Secular Stagnation Hypothes is and the Future of Europe’s Advanced Economies
description	The secular stagnation hypothesis originated in the late 1930s when Alvin Hansen proposed that the American economy will experience a prolonged depression because of the slowdown in demographics. Widely discussed in the aftermath of the Great Depression, interest in this hypothesis has waned as the world entered a period of rapid economic growth after World War II. In the years following the Great Recession, the secular stagnation hypothesis has once again come to the forefront of economic research when Lawrence Summers introduced the so‑called “new secular stagnation hypothesis.” This article aims to establish whether the secular stagnation hypothesis is relevant to the future of Europe’s advanced economies. Two main symptoms of secular stagnation (demographic slowdown and decline in the natural rate of interest) are especially noticeable in Western Europe. The article has three parts. Part one contains a theoretical overview of the secular stagnation hypothesis. Part two comprises the empirical analysis of the macroeconomic situation in selected advanced economies in Europe and a short review of findings in the literature on the natural rate of interest. Part three identifies possible future problems and provides brief policy recommendations. I conclude that Italy, and to a lesser degree, Spain and Germany, are the countries most vulnerable to secular stagnation.
format	article
author	Artur F. Tomeczek
author_facet	Artur F. Tomeczek
author_sort	Artur F. Tomeczek
title	The Secular Stagnation Hypothes is and the Future of Europe’s Advanced Economies
title_short	The Secular Stagnation Hypothes is and the Future of Europe’s Advanced Economies
title_full	The Secular Stagnation Hypothes is and the Future of Europe’s Advanced Economies
title_fullStr	The Secular Stagnation Hypothes is and the Future of Europe’s Advanced Economies
title_full_unstemmed	The Secular Stagnation Hypothes is and the Future of Europe’s Advanced Economies
title_sort	secular stagnation hypothes is and the future of europe’s advanced economies
publisher	Ksiegarnia Akademicka Publishing
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/1c44ce378cca45bfae33477aeb3f433b
work_keys_str_mv	AT arturftomeczek thesecularstagnationhypothesisandthefutureofeuropesadvancedeconomies AT arturftomeczek secularstagnationhypothesisandthefutureofeuropesadvancedeconomies
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The Secular Stagnation Hypothes is and the Future of Europe’s Advanced Economies

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