Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery

Abstract Increasing sea temperature is a driver of change for many fish traits, particularly for fast-growing epipelagic species with short life spans. With warming, altered spawning phenology and faster growth may produce substantially larger body sizes of the new cohort, affecting fishery producti...

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Autores principales:	Vicenç Moltó, Miquel Palmer, Andrés Ospina-Álvarez, Sílvia Pérez-Mayol, Amina Besbes Benseddik, Mark Gatt, Beatriz Morales-Nin, Francisco Alemany, Ignacio A. Catalán
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1e13e059f4524d1cae2fea82d2c56f18
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1e13e059f4524d1cae2fea82d2c56f182021-12-02T18:27:49ZProjected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery10.1038/s41598-021-88171-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/1e13e059f4524d1cae2fea82d2c56f182021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88171-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Increasing sea temperature is a driver of change for many fish traits, particularly for fast-growing epipelagic species with short life spans. With warming, altered spawning phenology and faster growth may produce substantially larger body sizes of the new cohort, affecting fishery productivity. We present an individual-based model (IBM) that predicts the distribution of fish length at catch under observed and projected thermal scenarios, accounting for mortality, temperature-dependent spawning phenology, temperature- and photoperiod- dependent growth. This IBM was demonstrated with Coryphaena hippurus (common dolphinfish), a circumglobally-distributed and highly thermophilic species sustaining commercial and recreational fisheries where it is present. The model projected a 13.2% increase in the average length at catch under marine heatwave conditions compared to the current thermal regime (1995–2005 average). Projections under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 by the end of the century led to 5.1% and 12.8% increase in average length, respectively. Furthermore, these thermal scenarios affected spawning phenology differently, producing higher variance in body size under RCP 8.5 scenario with respect to marine heatwave conditions. This study highlights how the environmental effects of climate change can alter the distribution of species length at catch.Vicenç MoltóMiquel PalmerAndrés Ospina-ÁlvarezSílvia Pérez-MayolAmina Besbes BenseddikMark GattBeatriz Morales-NinFrancisco AlemanyIgnacio A. CatalánNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Vicenç Moltó Miquel Palmer Andrés Ospina-Álvarez Sílvia Pérez-Mayol Amina Besbes Benseddik Mark Gatt Beatriz Morales-Nin Francisco Alemany Ignacio A. Catalán Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
description	Abstract Increasing sea temperature is a driver of change for many fish traits, particularly for fast-growing epipelagic species with short life spans. With warming, altered spawning phenology and faster growth may produce substantially larger body sizes of the new cohort, affecting fishery productivity. We present an individual-based model (IBM) that predicts the distribution of fish length at catch under observed and projected thermal scenarios, accounting for mortality, temperature-dependent spawning phenology, temperature- and photoperiod- dependent growth. This IBM was demonstrated with Coryphaena hippurus (common dolphinfish), a circumglobally-distributed and highly thermophilic species sustaining commercial and recreational fisheries where it is present. The model projected a 13.2% increase in the average length at catch under marine heatwave conditions compared to the current thermal regime (1995–2005 average). Projections under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 by the end of the century led to 5.1% and 12.8% increase in average length, respectively. Furthermore, these thermal scenarios affected spawning phenology differently, producing higher variance in body size under RCP 8.5 scenario with respect to marine heatwave conditions. This study highlights how the environmental effects of climate change can alter the distribution of species length at catch.
format	article
author	Vicenç Moltó Miquel Palmer Andrés Ospina-Álvarez Sílvia Pérez-Mayol Amina Besbes Benseddik Mark Gatt Beatriz Morales-Nin Francisco Alemany Ignacio A. Catalán
author_facet	Vicenç Moltó Miquel Palmer Andrés Ospina-Álvarez Sílvia Pérez-Mayol Amina Besbes Benseddik Mark Gatt Beatriz Morales-Nin Francisco Alemany Ignacio A. Catalán
author_sort	Vicenç Moltó
title	Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
title_short	Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
title_full	Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
title_fullStr	Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
title_full_unstemmed	Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
title_sort	projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1e13e059f4524d1cae2fea82d2c56f18
work_keys_str_mv	AT vicencmolto projectedeffectsofoceanwarmingonaniconicpelagicfishanditsfishery AT miquelpalmer projectedeffectsofoceanwarmingonaniconicpelagicfishanditsfishery AT andresospinaalvarez projectedeffectsofoceanwarmingonaniconicpelagicfishanditsfishery AT silviaperezmayol projectedeffectsofoceanwarmingonaniconicpelagicfishanditsfishery AT aminabesbesbenseddik projectedeffectsofoceanwarmingonaniconicpelagicfishanditsfishery AT markgatt projectedeffectsofoceanwarmingonaniconicpelagicfishanditsfishery AT beatrizmoralesnin projectedeffectsofoceanwarmingonaniconicpelagicfishanditsfishery AT franciscoalemany projectedeffectsofoceanwarmingonaniconicpelagicfishanditsfishery AT ignacioacatalan projectedeffectsofoceanwarmingonaniconicpelagicfishanditsfishery
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Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery

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