More than a sum of its parts: A Keynesian epistemology of statistics

The major theoretical insight of Keynes’ General Theory is that aggregate quantities describing the state of an economy as a whole are irreducible to arithmetic summations of individual decisions. This breaks with the logic of classical political economy and establishes macroeconomics as the study o...

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Autor principal:	Nicholas Werle
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	DE EN FR
Publicado:	Editura ASE Bucuresti 2011
Materias:	Keynesian macroeconomics Probability Uncertainty Physics Econometrics Economics as a science HB71-74
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1e2f256377fa4ee6b8c6f119aa094098
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1e2f256377fa4ee6b8c6f119aa0940982021-12-02T04:41:21ZMore than a sum of its parts: A Keynesian epistemology of statistics1843-22981844-8208https://doaj.org/article/1e2f256377fa4ee6b8c6f119aa0940982011-05-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.jpe.ro/poze/articole/60.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1843-2298https://doaj.org/toc/1844-8208The major theoretical insight of Keynes’ General Theory is that aggregate quantities describing the state of an economy as a whole are irreducible to arithmetic summations of individual decisions. This breaks with the logic of classical political economy and establishes macroeconomics as the study of economy-wide dynamics, logically independent from any underlying theory of individual rationality. However, Keynes does have a theory of individual psychology that links expectations back up to aggregate quantities with robust statistical methods, which account for the fundamental uncertainty one faces in predicting the future. By comparing the theoretical structure of macroeconomics to that of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, this essay proposes a novel reading of Keynes’ epistemology of statistical laws. On this view, statistical methods allow theoreticians to connect the mechanics of vast numbers of micro-scale entities to a macroscale dynamics, even in the absence of a fully determinate causal story. Keynes’ belief that organic wholes emerge from the interactions of complex systems is a product of his early work on the development of statistical mechanics from kinetic theory. In light of this epistemological foundation, this essay shows how the neoclassical idea of supplying macroeconomics with microfoundations is inherently contradictory.Nicholas WerleEditura ASE BucurestiarticleKeynesian macroeconomicsProbabilityUncertaintyPhysicsEconometricsEconomics as a scienceHB71-74DEENFRJournal of Philosophical Economics, Vol IV, Iss 2, Pp 65-92 (2011)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	DE EN FR
topic	Keynesian macroeconomics Probability Uncertainty Physics Econometrics Economics as a science HB71-74
spellingShingle	Keynesian macroeconomics Probability Uncertainty Physics Econometrics Economics as a science HB71-74 Nicholas Werle More than a sum of its parts: A Keynesian epistemology of statistics
description	The major theoretical insight of Keynes’ General Theory is that aggregate quantities describing the state of an economy as a whole are irreducible to arithmetic summations of individual decisions. This breaks with the logic of classical political economy and establishes macroeconomics as the study of economy-wide dynamics, logically independent from any underlying theory of individual rationality. However, Keynes does have a theory of individual psychology that links expectations back up to aggregate quantities with robust statistical methods, which account for the fundamental uncertainty one faces in predicting the future. By comparing the theoretical structure of macroeconomics to that of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, this essay proposes a novel reading of Keynes’ epistemology of statistical laws. On this view, statistical methods allow theoreticians to connect the mechanics of vast numbers of micro-scale entities to a macroscale dynamics, even in the absence of a fully determinate causal story. Keynes’ belief that organic wholes emerge from the interactions of complex systems is a product of his early work on the development of statistical mechanics from kinetic theory. In light of this epistemological foundation, this essay shows how the neoclassical idea of supplying macroeconomics with microfoundations is inherently contradictory.
format	article
author	Nicholas Werle
author_facet	Nicholas Werle
author_sort	Nicholas Werle
title	More than a sum of its parts: A Keynesian epistemology of statistics
title_short	More than a sum of its parts: A Keynesian epistemology of statistics
title_full	More than a sum of its parts: A Keynesian epistemology of statistics
title_fullStr	More than a sum of its parts: A Keynesian epistemology of statistics
title_full_unstemmed	More than a sum of its parts: A Keynesian epistemology of statistics
title_sort	more than a sum of its parts: a keynesian epistemology of statistics
publisher	Editura ASE Bucuresti
publishDate	2011
url	https://doaj.org/article/1e2f256377fa4ee6b8c6f119aa094098
work_keys_str_mv	AT nicholaswerle morethanasumofitspartsakeynesianepistemologyofstatistics
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More than a sum of its parts: A Keynesian epistemology of statistics

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