Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure

Abstract The rapid emergence and expansion of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants threatens our ability to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. These novel SARS-CoV-2 variants often harbor multiple point mutations, conferring one or more evolutionarily advantageous traits, such as increased transmissibility, i...

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Autores principales:	Debra Van Egeren, Alexander Novokhodko, Madison Stoddard, Uyen Tran, Bruce Zetter, Michael S. Rogers, Diane Joseph-McCarthy, Arijit Chakravarty
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1e588587b1a248438243cf75bb3474be
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1e588587b1a248438243cf75bb3474be2021-11-21T12:19:56ZControlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure10.1038/s41598-021-02148-82045-2322https://doaj.org/article/1e588587b1a248438243cf75bb3474be2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-02148-8https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The rapid emergence and expansion of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants threatens our ability to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. These novel SARS-CoV-2 variants often harbor multiple point mutations, conferring one or more evolutionarily advantageous traits, such as increased transmissibility, immune evasion and longer infection duration. In a number of cases, variant emergence has been linked to long-term infections in individuals who were either immunocompromised or treated with convalescent plasma. In this paper, we used a stochastic evolutionary modeling framework to explore the emergence of fitter variants of SARS-CoV-2 during long-term infections. We found that increased viral load and infection duration favor emergence of such variants. While the overall probability of emergence and subsequent transmission from any given infection is low, on a population level these events occur fairly frequently. Targeting these low-probability stochastic events that lead to the establishment of novel advantageous viral variants might allow us to slow the rate at which they emerge in the patient population, and prevent them from spreading deterministically due to natural selection. Our work thus suggests practical ways to achieve control of long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections, which will be critical for slowing the rate of viral evolution.Debra Van EgerenAlexander NovokhodkoMadison StoddardUyen TranBruce ZetterMichael S. RogersDiane Joseph-McCarthyArijit ChakravartyNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Debra Van Egeren Alexander Novokhodko Madison Stoddard Uyen Tran Bruce Zetter Michael S. Rogers Diane Joseph-McCarthy Arijit Chakravarty Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure
description	Abstract The rapid emergence and expansion of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants threatens our ability to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. These novel SARS-CoV-2 variants often harbor multiple point mutations, conferring one or more evolutionarily advantageous traits, such as increased transmissibility, immune evasion and longer infection duration. In a number of cases, variant emergence has been linked to long-term infections in individuals who were either immunocompromised or treated with convalescent plasma. In this paper, we used a stochastic evolutionary modeling framework to explore the emergence of fitter variants of SARS-CoV-2 during long-term infections. We found that increased viral load and infection duration favor emergence of such variants. While the overall probability of emergence and subsequent transmission from any given infection is low, on a population level these events occur fairly frequently. Targeting these low-probability stochastic events that lead to the establishment of novel advantageous viral variants might allow us to slow the rate at which they emerge in the patient population, and prevent them from spreading deterministically due to natural selection. Our work thus suggests practical ways to achieve control of long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections, which will be critical for slowing the rate of viral evolution.
format	article
author	Debra Van Egeren Alexander Novokhodko Madison Stoddard Uyen Tran Bruce Zetter Michael S. Rogers Diane Joseph-McCarthy Arijit Chakravarty
author_facet	Debra Van Egeren Alexander Novokhodko Madison Stoddard Uyen Tran Bruce Zetter Michael S. Rogers Diane Joseph-McCarthy Arijit Chakravarty
author_sort	Debra Van Egeren
title	Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure
title_short	Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure
title_full	Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure
title_fullStr	Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure
title_full_unstemmed	Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure
title_sort	controlling long-term sars-cov-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1e588587b1a248438243cf75bb3474be
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Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure

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