Evaluation of Surface Upward Longwave Radiation in the CMIP6 Models with Ground and Satellite Observations

Surface upward longwave radiation (SULR) is an indicator of thermal conditions over the Earth’s surface. In this study, we validated the simulated SULR from 51 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) general circulation models (GCMs) through a comparison with ground measurements and satellite-...

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Autores principales:	Jiawen Xu, Xiaotong Zhang, Chunjie Feng, Shuyue Yang, Shikang Guan, Kun Jia, Yunjun Yao, Xianhong Xie, Bo Jiang, Jie Cheng, Xiang Zhao
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	surface upward longwave radiation (SULR) CMIP6 CMIP5 GCMs Bayesian model averaging multimodel ensemble Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1e8c46cca10242d3894c15b7ff51bf06
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1e8c46cca10242d3894c15b7ff51bf062021-11-11T18:58:03ZEvaluation of Surface Upward Longwave Radiation in the CMIP6 Models with Ground and Satellite Observations10.3390/rs132144642072-4292https://doaj.org/article/1e8c46cca10242d3894c15b7ff51bf062021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/21/4464https://doaj.org/toc/2072-4292Surface upward longwave radiation (SULR) is an indicator of thermal conditions over the Earth’s surface. In this study, we validated the simulated SULR from 51 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) general circulation models (GCMs) through a comparison with ground measurements and satellite-retrieved SULR from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System, Energy Balanced and Filled (CERES EBAF). Moreover, we improved the SULR estimations by a fusion of multiple CMIP6 GCMs using multimodel ensemble (MME) methods. Large variations were found in the monthly mean SULR among the 51 CMIP6 GCMs; the bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of the individual CMIP6 GCMs at 133 sites ranged from −3 to 24 W m<sup>−2</sup> and 22 to 38 W m<sup>−2</sup>, respectively, which were higher than those found between the CERES EBAF and GCMs. The CMIP6 GCMs did not improve the overestimation of SULR compared to the CMIP5 GCMs. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method showed better performance in simulating SULR than the individual GCMs and simple model averaging (SMA) method, with a bias of 0 W m<sup>−2</sup> and an RMSE of 19.29 W m<sup>−2</sup> for the 133 sites. In terms of the global annual mean SULR, our best estimation for the CMIP6 GCMs using the BMA method was 392 W m<sup>−2</sup> during 2000–2014. We found that the SULR varied between 386 and 393 W m<sup>−2</sup> from 1850 to 2014, exhibiting an increasing tendency of 0.2 W m<sup>−2</sup> per decade (<i>p</i> < 0.05).Jiawen XuXiaotong ZhangChunjie FengShuyue YangShikang GuanKun JiaYunjun YaoXianhong XieBo JiangJie ChengXiang ZhaoMDPI AGarticlesurface upward longwave radiation (SULR)CMIP6CMIP5GCMsBayesian model averagingmultimodel ensembleScienceQENRemote Sensing, Vol 13, Iss 4464, p 4464 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	surface upward longwave radiation (SULR) CMIP6 CMIP5 GCMs Bayesian model averaging multimodel ensemble Science Q
spellingShingle	surface upward longwave radiation (SULR) CMIP6 CMIP5 GCMs Bayesian model averaging multimodel ensemble Science Q Jiawen Xu Xiaotong Zhang Chunjie Feng Shuyue Yang Shikang Guan Kun Jia Yunjun Yao Xianhong Xie Bo Jiang Jie Cheng Xiang Zhao Evaluation of Surface Upward Longwave Radiation in the CMIP6 Models with Ground and Satellite Observations
description	Surface upward longwave radiation (SULR) is an indicator of thermal conditions over the Earth’s surface. In this study, we validated the simulated SULR from 51 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) general circulation models (GCMs) through a comparison with ground measurements and satellite-retrieved SULR from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System, Energy Balanced and Filled (CERES EBAF). Moreover, we improved the SULR estimations by a fusion of multiple CMIP6 GCMs using multimodel ensemble (MME) methods. Large variations were found in the monthly mean SULR among the 51 CMIP6 GCMs; the bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of the individual CMIP6 GCMs at 133 sites ranged from −3 to 24 W m<sup>−2</sup> and 22 to 38 W m<sup>−2</sup>, respectively, which were higher than those found between the CERES EBAF and GCMs. The CMIP6 GCMs did not improve the overestimation of SULR compared to the CMIP5 GCMs. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method showed better performance in simulating SULR than the individual GCMs and simple model averaging (SMA) method, with a bias of 0 W m<sup>−2</sup> and an RMSE of 19.29 W m<sup>−2</sup> for the 133 sites. In terms of the global annual mean SULR, our best estimation for the CMIP6 GCMs using the BMA method was 392 W m<sup>−2</sup> during 2000–2014. We found that the SULR varied between 386 and 393 W m<sup>−2</sup> from 1850 to 2014, exhibiting an increasing tendency of 0.2 W m<sup>−2</sup> per decade (<i>p</i> < 0.05).
format	article
author	Jiawen Xu Xiaotong Zhang Chunjie Feng Shuyue Yang Shikang Guan Kun Jia Yunjun Yao Xianhong Xie Bo Jiang Jie Cheng Xiang Zhao
author_facet	Jiawen Xu Xiaotong Zhang Chunjie Feng Shuyue Yang Shikang Guan Kun Jia Yunjun Yao Xianhong Xie Bo Jiang Jie Cheng Xiang Zhao
author_sort	Jiawen Xu
title	Evaluation of Surface Upward Longwave Radiation in the CMIP6 Models with Ground and Satellite Observations
title_short	Evaluation of Surface Upward Longwave Radiation in the CMIP6 Models with Ground and Satellite Observations
title_full	Evaluation of Surface Upward Longwave Radiation in the CMIP6 Models with Ground and Satellite Observations
title_fullStr	Evaluation of Surface Upward Longwave Radiation in the CMIP6 Models with Ground and Satellite Observations
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluation of Surface Upward Longwave Radiation in the CMIP6 Models with Ground and Satellite Observations
title_sort	evaluation of surface upward longwave radiation in the cmip6 models with ground and satellite observations
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1e8c46cca10242d3894c15b7ff51bf06
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Evaluation of Surface Upward Longwave Radiation in the CMIP6 Models with Ground and Satellite Observations

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