On limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.

Contact tracing and quarantine are well established non-pharmaceutical epidemic control tools. The paper aims to clarify the impact of these measures in evolution of epidemic. The proposed deterministic model defines a simple rule on the reproduction number [Formula: see text] in terms of ratio of d...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Tomasz Piasecki, Piotr B Mucha, Magdalena Rosińska
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1e8de6c264c14bbebd1a30f536bf59d3
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:1e8de6c264c14bbebd1a30f536bf59d3
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1e8de6c264c14bbebd1a30f536bf59d32021-12-02T20:17:49ZOn limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0256180https://doaj.org/article/1e8de6c264c14bbebd1a30f536bf59d32021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256180https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Contact tracing and quarantine are well established non-pharmaceutical epidemic control tools. The paper aims to clarify the impact of these measures in evolution of epidemic. The proposed deterministic model defines a simple rule on the reproduction number [Formula: see text] in terms of ratio of diagnosed cases and, quarantine and transmission parameters. The model is applied to the early stage of Covid19 crisis in Poland. We investigate 3 scenarios corresponding to different ratios of diagnosed cases. Our results show that, depending on the scenario, contact tracing prevented from 50% to over 90% of cases. The effects of quarantine are limited by fraction of undiagnosed cases. The key conclusion is that under realistic assumptions the epidemic can not be controlled without any social distancing measures.Tomasz PiaseckiPiotr B MuchaMagdalena RosińskaPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 8, p e0256180 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tomasz Piasecki Piotr B Mucha Magdalena Rosińska On limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.
description	Contact tracing and quarantine are well established non-pharmaceutical epidemic control tools. The paper aims to clarify the impact of these measures in evolution of epidemic. The proposed deterministic model defines a simple rule on the reproduction number [Formula: see text] in terms of ratio of diagnosed cases and, quarantine and transmission parameters. The model is applied to the early stage of Covid19 crisis in Poland. We investigate 3 scenarios corresponding to different ratios of diagnosed cases. Our results show that, depending on the scenario, contact tracing prevented from 50% to over 90% of cases. The effects of quarantine are limited by fraction of undiagnosed cases. The key conclusion is that under realistic assumptions the epidemic can not be controlled without any social distancing measures.
format	article
author	Tomasz Piasecki Piotr B Mucha Magdalena Rosińska
author_facet	Tomasz Piasecki Piotr B Mucha Magdalena Rosińska
author_sort	Tomasz Piasecki
title	On limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.
title_short	On limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.
title_full	On limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.
title_fullStr	On limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.
title_full_unstemmed	On limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.
title_sort	on limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1e8de6c264c14bbebd1a30f536bf59d3
work_keys_str_mv	AT tomaszpiasecki onlimitsofcontacttracinginepidemiccontrol AT piotrbmucha onlimitsofcontacttracinginepidemiccontrol AT magdalenarosinska onlimitsofcontacttracinginepidemiccontrol
_version_	1718374332179152896

On limits of contact tracing in epidemic control.

Ejemplares similares