Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections

Abstract Estimates of future flood risk rely on projections from climate models. The relatively few climate models used to analyze future flood risk cannot easily quantify of their associated uncertainties. In this study, we demonstrated that the projected fluvial flood changes estimated by a new ge...

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Autores principales:	Yukiko Hirabayashi, Masahiro Tanoue, Orie Sasaki, Xudong Zhou, Dai Yamazaki
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1eadd6f33cf84c2d937fabfc863198b6
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:1eadd6f33cf84c2d937fabfc863198b6
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1eadd6f33cf84c2d937fabfc863198b62021-12-02T14:26:55ZGlobal exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections10.1038/s41598-021-83279-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/1eadd6f33cf84c2d937fabfc863198b62021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83279-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Estimates of future flood risk rely on projections from climate models. The relatively few climate models used to analyze future flood risk cannot easily quantify of their associated uncertainties. In this study, we demonstrated that the projected fluvial flood changes estimated by a new generation of climate models, the collectively known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), are similar to those estimated by CMIP5. The spatial patterns of the multi-model median signs of change (+ or −) were also very consistent, implying greater confidence in the projections. The model spread changed little over the course of model development, suggesting irreducibility of the model spread due to internal climate variability, and the consistent projections of models from the same institute suggest the potential to reduce uncertainties caused by model differences. Potential global exposure to flooding is projected to be proportional to the degree of warming, and a greater threat is anticipated as populations increase, demonstrating the need for immediate decisions.Yukiko HirabayashiMasahiro TanoueOrie SasakiXudong ZhouDai YamazakiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Yukiko Hirabayashi Masahiro Tanoue Orie Sasaki Xudong Zhou Dai Yamazaki Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections
description	Abstract Estimates of future flood risk rely on projections from climate models. The relatively few climate models used to analyze future flood risk cannot easily quantify of their associated uncertainties. In this study, we demonstrated that the projected fluvial flood changes estimated by a new generation of climate models, the collectively known as Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), are similar to those estimated by CMIP5. The spatial patterns of the multi-model median signs of change (+ or −) were also very consistent, implying greater confidence in the projections. The model spread changed little over the course of model development, suggesting irreducibility of the model spread due to internal climate variability, and the consistent projections of models from the same institute suggest the potential to reduce uncertainties caused by model differences. Potential global exposure to flooding is projected to be proportional to the degree of warming, and a greater threat is anticipated as populations increase, demonstrating the need for immediate decisions.
format	article
author	Yukiko Hirabayashi Masahiro Tanoue Orie Sasaki Xudong Zhou Dai Yamazaki
author_facet	Yukiko Hirabayashi Masahiro Tanoue Orie Sasaki Xudong Zhou Dai Yamazaki
author_sort	Yukiko Hirabayashi
title	Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections
title_short	Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections
title_full	Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections
title_fullStr	Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections
title_full_unstemmed	Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections
title_sort	global exposure to flooding from the new cmip6 climate model projections
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1eadd6f33cf84c2d937fabfc863198b6
work_keys_str_mv	AT yukikohirabayashi globalexposuretofloodingfromthenewcmip6climatemodelprojections AT masahirotanoue globalexposuretofloodingfromthenewcmip6climatemodelprojections AT oriesasaki globalexposuretofloodingfromthenewcmip6climatemodelprojections AT xudongzhou globalexposuretofloodingfromthenewcmip6climatemodelprojections AT daiyamazaki globalexposuretofloodingfromthenewcmip6climatemodelprojections
_version_	1718391296112984064

Global exposure to flooding from the new CMIP6 climate model projections

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