LONG-TERM FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS BETWEEN LOCAL HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS: CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS

The article is the form of scientific report on the results of three year long project on methodology of long term forecasting the development of the system of international relations. The methodology is based on the following assumptions: input information is accurate and complete; international re...

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Autor principal:	A. I. Podberezkin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN RU
Publicado:	MGIMO University Press 2016
Materias:	civilization forecasting planning international relations human capital International relations JZ2-6530
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1eeb4e6d70734e40adfd75fdc750338d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1eeb4e6d70734e40adfd75fdc750338d2021-11-23T14:51:02ZLONG-TERM FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS BETWEEN LOCAL HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS: CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS2071-81602541-909910.24833/2071-8160-2016-4-49-209-217https://doaj.org/article/1eeb4e6d70734e40adfd75fdc750338d2016-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/609https://doaj.org/toc/2071-8160https://doaj.org/toc/2541-9099The article is the form of scientific report on the results of three year long project on methodology of long term forecasting the development of the system of international relations. The methodology is based on the following assumptions: input information is accurate and complete; international relations constitute a system, scenarios for different levels of international relations development are hierarchically interdependent; the speed of development is different on various levels of international relations; various national capabilities affect the development; elites affect international relations; civil society affect international relations. Based on this assumption the author builds the most probable scenario of intercivilizational relations which is military coercive interaction. The role of soft power will increase its share in the toolkit of the confrontational politics. To win in this confrontation it is necessary to review the current practices of strategic forecasting and planning and to rebuild the entire military organization of the Russian army. The principal condition for the victory is development of national human capital, as well as the formation of the national ideology.A. I. PodberezkinMGIMO University Pressarticlecivilizationforecastingplanninginternational relationshuman capitalInternational relationsJZ2-6530ENRUVestnik MGIMO-Universiteta, Vol 0, Iss 4(49), Pp 209-217 (2016)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN RU
topic	civilization forecasting planning international relations human capital International relations JZ2-6530
spellingShingle	civilization forecasting planning international relations human capital International relations JZ2-6530 A. I. Podberezkin LONG-TERM FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS BETWEEN LOCAL HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS: CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS
description	The article is the form of scientific report on the results of three year long project on methodology of long term forecasting the development of the system of international relations. The methodology is based on the following assumptions: input information is accurate and complete; international relations constitute a system, scenarios for different levels of international relations development are hierarchically interdependent; the speed of development is different on various levels of international relations; various national capabilities affect the development; elites affect international relations; civil society affect international relations. Based on this assumption the author builds the most probable scenario of intercivilizational relations which is military coercive interaction. The role of soft power will increase its share in the toolkit of the confrontational politics. To win in this confrontation it is necessary to review the current practices of strategic forecasting and planning and to rebuild the entire military organization of the Russian army. The principal condition for the victory is development of national human capital, as well as the formation of the national ideology.
format	article
author	A. I. Podberezkin
author_facet	A. I. Podberezkin
author_sort	A. I. Podberezkin
title	LONG-TERM FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS BETWEEN LOCAL HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS: CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS
title_short	LONG-TERM FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS BETWEEN LOCAL HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS: CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS
title_full	LONG-TERM FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS BETWEEN LOCAL HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS: CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS
title_fullStr	LONG-TERM FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS BETWEEN LOCAL HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS: CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS
title_full_unstemmed	LONG-TERM FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS BETWEEN LOCAL HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS: CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS
title_sort	long-term forecasting the development of relations between local human civilizations: conclusions and proposals
publisher	MGIMO University Press
publishDate	2016
url	https://doaj.org/article/1eeb4e6d70734e40adfd75fdc750338d
work_keys_str_mv	AT aipodberezkin longtermforecastingthedevelopmentofrelationsbetweenlocalhumancivilizationsconclusionsandproposals
_version_	1718416260692180992

LONG-TERM FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIONS BETWEEN LOCAL HUMAN CIVILIZATIONS: CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS

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