Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions

With up to 15% of the world’s population being protected by dikes from flooding, climate-change-induced river levels may dramatically increase the flood risk of these societies. Reliable assessments of dike stability will become increasingly important, but groundwater flow through dikes is often ove...

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Autores principales:	Teun van Woerkom, Rens van Beek, Hans Middelkoop, Marc F. P. Bierkens
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	groundwater flood defenses sensitivity analysis dike stability flood safety Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1f559dfce50b4ca6ab76b3f3a4bd8baa
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1f559dfce50b4ca6ab76b3f3a4bd8baa2021-11-11T19:55:33ZGlobal Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions10.3390/w132130412073-4441https://doaj.org/article/1f559dfce50b4ca6ab76b3f3a4bd8baa2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3041https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441With up to 15% of the world’s population being protected by dikes from flooding, climate-change-induced river levels may dramatically increase the flood risk of these societies. Reliable assessments of dike stability will become increasingly important, but groundwater flow through dikes is often oversimplified due to limited understanding of the important process parameters. To improve the understanding of these parameters, we performed a global sensitivity analysis on a comprehensive hydro-stability model. The sensitivity analysis encompassed fifteen parameters related to geometry, drainage conditions and material properties. The following three sensitivity settings were selected to characterize model behavior: parameter prioritization, trend identification and interaction qualification. The first two showed that dike stability is mostly dependent on the dike slope, followed by the type of subsurface material. Interaction quantification indicated a very prominent interaction between the dike and subsurface material, as it influences both groundwater conditions and dike stability directly. Despite our relatively simple model setup, a database containing the results of the extensive Monte Carlo analysis succeeded in finding most of the unsafe sections identified by the official inspection results. This supports the applicability of our results and demonstrates that both geometry and subsurface parameters affect the groundwater conditions and dike stability.Teun van WoerkomRens van BeekHans MiddelkoopMarc F. P. BierkensMDPI AGarticlegroundwaterflood defensessensitivity analysisdike stabilityflood safetyHydraulic engineeringTC1-978Water supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500ENWater, Vol 13, Iss 3041, p 3041 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	groundwater flood defenses sensitivity analysis dike stability flood safety Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
spellingShingle	groundwater flood defenses sensitivity analysis dike stability flood safety Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Teun van Woerkom Rens van Beek Hans Middelkoop Marc F. P. Bierkens Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
description	With up to 15% of the world’s population being protected by dikes from flooding, climate-change-induced river levels may dramatically increase the flood risk of these societies. Reliable assessments of dike stability will become increasingly important, but groundwater flow through dikes is often oversimplified due to limited understanding of the important process parameters. To improve the understanding of these parameters, we performed a global sensitivity analysis on a comprehensive hydro-stability model. The sensitivity analysis encompassed fifteen parameters related to geometry, drainage conditions and material properties. The following three sensitivity settings were selected to characterize model behavior: parameter prioritization, trend identification and interaction qualification. The first two showed that dike stability is mostly dependent on the dike slope, followed by the type of subsurface material. Interaction quantification indicated a very prominent interaction between the dike and subsurface material, as it influences both groundwater conditions and dike stability directly. Despite our relatively simple model setup, a database containing the results of the extensive Monte Carlo analysis succeeded in finding most of the unsafe sections identified by the official inspection results. This supports the applicability of our results and demonstrates that both geometry and subsurface parameters affect the groundwater conditions and dike stability.
format	article
author	Teun van Woerkom Rens van Beek Hans Middelkoop Marc F. P. Bierkens
author_facet	Teun van Woerkom Rens van Beek Hans Middelkoop Marc F. P. Bierkens
author_sort	Teun van Woerkom
title	Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
title_short	Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
title_full	Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
title_fullStr	Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
title_full_unstemmed	Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions
title_sort	global sensitivity analysis of groundwater related dike stability under extreme loading conditions
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1f559dfce50b4ca6ab76b3f3a4bd8baa
work_keys_str_mv	AT teunvanwoerkom globalsensitivityanalysisofgroundwaterrelateddikestabilityunderextremeloadingconditions AT rensvanbeek globalsensitivityanalysisofgroundwaterrelateddikestabilityunderextremeloadingconditions AT hansmiddelkoop globalsensitivityanalysisofgroundwaterrelateddikestabilityunderextremeloadingconditions AT marcfpbierkens globalsensitivityanalysisofgroundwaterrelateddikestabilityunderextremeloadingconditions
_version_	1718431335040679936

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Related Dike Stability under Extreme Loading Conditions

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