Probabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach

Abstract Climate change is widely expected to affect the thousands of small tidal inlets (STIs) dotting the global coastline. To properly inform effective adaptation strategies for the coastal areas in the vicinity of these inlets, it is necessary to know the temporal evolution of inlet stability ov...

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Autores principales:	Trang Minh Duong, Roshanka Ranasinghe, David P. Callaghan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1fafbc61a3e44415a3bd4ff0afe0ec9e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1fafbc61a3e44415a3bd4ff0afe0ec9e2021-11-28T12:19:05ZProbabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach10.1038/s41598-021-01945-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/1fafbc61a3e44415a3bd4ff0afe0ec9e2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01945-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Climate change is widely expected to affect the thousands of small tidal inlets (STIs) dotting the global coastline. To properly inform effective adaptation strategies for the coastal areas in the vicinity of these inlets, it is necessary to know the temporal evolution of inlet stability over climate change time scales (50–100 years). As available numerical models are unable to perform continuous morphodynamic simulations at such time scales, here we develop and pilot a fast, probabilistic, reduced complexity model (RAPSTA – RAPid assessment tool of inlet STAbility) that can also quantify forcing uncertainties. RAPSTA accounts for the key physical processes governing STI stability and for climate change driven variations in system forcing. The model is very fast, providing a 100 year projection in less than 3 seconds. RAPSTA is demonstrated here at 3 STIs, representing the 3 main Types of STIs; Permanently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 1); Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlet (Type 2); Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 3). Model applications under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), accounting for forcing uncertainties, show that while the Type 1 STI will not change type over the twenty-first century, the Type 2 inlet may change into a more unstable Type 3 system around mid-century, and the Type 3 STI may change into a less unstable Type 2 system in about 20 years from now, further changing into a stable Type 1 STI around mid-century. These projections underscore the need for future adaptation strategies to remain flexible.Trang Minh DuongRoshanka RanasingheDavid P. CallaghanNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Trang Minh Duong Roshanka Ranasinghe David P. Callaghan Probabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach
description	Abstract Climate change is widely expected to affect the thousands of small tidal inlets (STIs) dotting the global coastline. To properly inform effective adaptation strategies for the coastal areas in the vicinity of these inlets, it is necessary to know the temporal evolution of inlet stability over climate change time scales (50–100 years). As available numerical models are unable to perform continuous morphodynamic simulations at such time scales, here we develop and pilot a fast, probabilistic, reduced complexity model (RAPSTA – RAPid assessment tool of inlet STAbility) that can also quantify forcing uncertainties. RAPSTA accounts for the key physical processes governing STI stability and for climate change driven variations in system forcing. The model is very fast, providing a 100 year projection in less than 3 seconds. RAPSTA is demonstrated here at 3 STIs, representing the 3 main Types of STIs; Permanently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 1); Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlet (Type 2); Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 3). Model applications under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), accounting for forcing uncertainties, show that while the Type 1 STI will not change type over the twenty-first century, the Type 2 inlet may change into a more unstable Type 3 system around mid-century, and the Type 3 STI may change into a less unstable Type 2 system in about 20 years from now, further changing into a stable Type 1 STI around mid-century. These projections underscore the need for future adaptation strategies to remain flexible.
format	article
author	Trang Minh Duong Roshanka Ranasinghe David P. Callaghan
author_facet	Trang Minh Duong Roshanka Ranasinghe David P. Callaghan
author_sort	Trang Minh Duong
title	Probabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach
title_short	Probabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach
title_full	Probabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach
title_fullStr	Probabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach
title_full_unstemmed	Probabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach
title_sort	probabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1fafbc61a3e44415a3bd4ff0afe0ec9e
work_keys_str_mv	AT trangminhduong probabilisticprojectionsofthestabilityofsmalltidalinletsatcenturytimescaleusingareducedcomplexityapproach AT roshankaranasinghe probabilisticprojectionsofthestabilityofsmalltidalinletsatcenturytimescaleusingareducedcomplexityapproach AT davidpcallaghan probabilisticprojectionsofthestabilityofsmalltidalinletsatcenturytimescaleusingareducedcomplexityapproach
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Probabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach

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