Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models

Abstract Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations o...

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Autores principales:	Ruslan I. Mukhamadiarov, Shengfeng Deng, Shannon R. Serrao, Priyanka, Riya Nandi, Louie Hong Yao, Uwe C. Täuber
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1ff89acea14440e38b18f0ffb24b6181
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1ff89acea14440e38b18f0ffb24b61812021-12-02T11:46:00ZSocial distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models10.1038/s41598-020-80162-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/1ff89acea14440e38b18f0ffb24b61812021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80162-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity).Ruslan I. MukhamadiarovShengfeng DengShannon R. SerraoPriyankaRiya NandiLouie Hong YaoUwe C. TäuberNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ruslan I. Mukhamadiarov Shengfeng Deng Shannon R. Serrao Priyanka Riya Nandi Louie Hong Yao Uwe C. Täuber Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models
description	Abstract Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity).
format	article
author	Ruslan I. Mukhamadiarov Shengfeng Deng Shannon R. Serrao Priyanka Riya Nandi Louie Hong Yao Uwe C. Täuber
author_facet	Ruslan I. Mukhamadiarov Shengfeng Deng Shannon R. Serrao Priyanka Riya Nandi Louie Hong Yao Uwe C. Täuber
author_sort	Ruslan I. Mukhamadiarov
title	Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models
title_short	Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models
title_full	Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models
title_fullStr	Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models
title_full_unstemmed	Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models
title_sort	social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1ff89acea14440e38b18f0ffb24b6181
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Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based susceptible-infectious-recovered models

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